Global maritime growth to slow in 2023, UNCTAD says

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Global maritime growth to slow in 2023, UNCTAD says

The pace of global shipping activity is going to lose steam next year as economic turmoil, conflict in Ukraine and the impact of the epidemic weaken the outlook for trade, U.N. agency UNCTAD said on Tuesday.

In 2023, the world's largest investment banks expect global economic growth to slow down after Russia invaded Ukraine and soaring inflation.

The slowdown is expected to affect shipping, which transports more than 80% of global trade, although tanker freight rates could stay high.

In its Review of Maritime Transport for 2022, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD projected global maritime trade growth to be moderate to 1.4% this year and stay at that level in 2023.

In 2021, the shipment volume was 11 billion tons, which is a 3.8% decline in 2020, compared to the 3.2% growth in 2021 and overall shipment volume of 11 billion tons.

The growth for the period 2023 -- 2027 is predicted to be at a rate of 2.1%, a slower rate than the previous three-decade average of 3.3%. The recovery in maritime transport and logistics is now at risk due to the war in Ukraine, the lingering supply-chain constraints and China's cooling economy and zero-COVID policy, as well as inflationary pressures and the cost-of-living squeeze, UNCTAD said in the report.

Consumer spending in 2021 pushed container shipping markets to record levels with ports backed up around the world, which was partly due to the effects of lock downs.

UNCTAD said that the logjam in logistics will dissolve with the rebalancing of demand and supply forces, but added that there were increased risks of industrial action in ports and hinterland transport.

UNCTAD called for investments in maritime supply chains to enable ports, shipping fleets and hinterland connections to be better prepared for future global crises, climate change and the transition to low-carbon energy.

UNCTAD Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan told reporters that they needed to be prepared to deal with shocks to global value chains.