SHANGHAI: China has started taking measures to relax its zero-COVID policy, which is fuelling a mix of relief and worry as the public waits to see the health consequences, and impact on the medical system, of a full-blown exit.
The country has a relatively low vaccination rate and lack of herd immunity as some of the country's most vulnerable spots when it comes to a full reopening, according to researchers.
As of Sunday December 4th, China reported 5,235 COVID-related deaths and 340,483 cases with symptoms.
Here are some estimates:
His forecast showed that infections could rise to more than 233 million.
In May, scientists in China and the US estimated that China risks just over 1.5 million COVID deaths if it drops its tough zero-COVID policy without any safeguards such as ramping up vaccination and access to treatments, according to research published in Nature Medicine.
According to worldwide data gathered about the variant's severity, peak demand on intensive care would be more than 15 times capacity, causing 1.5 million deaths.
The death toll could be reduced sharply if there was a focus on vaccination, according to the lead authors, among whom were from Fudan University in China.
China could see 1.3 million to 2.1 million people die if it doesn't adopt a zero-COVID policy due to low vaccine and booster rates and lack of hybrid immunity, British scientific information and analytics company Airfinity said last Monday.
The company said it modelled its data on Hong Kong's BA. The city relaxed restrictions after two years, and caused a wave of 1 in February.