TAIPEI Taiwan's exports fell for the third consecutive month in November, more rapidly than predicted due to the worsening state of the global economy and with the outlook clouded by inflation and interest rate rises around the world.
Exports fell 13.1 per cent last month from a year earlier to $36.13 billion, the lowest figure in 19 months, but the biggest decline in almost seven years, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.
That was much worse than the forecast for a 6.7 per cent contraction in a Reuters poll, and followed a 0.5 per cent drop in October.
The ministry said global demand was slowed more and more clearly as a result of the war in Ukraine, unabated global inflation pressures and interest rate increase cycles in major economies.
Tony Phoo, senior economist for northeast Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, said that the weakening demand may continue until the first and second quarters of next year.
He said that if the second half of next year is true, Taiwan's economic growth rate of more than 2 per cent will be under pressure.
Taiwan's total electronics components exports fell by 4.9 per cent to $15.15 billion in November, with semiconductor exports down 3.4 per cent from a year earlier.
The world's largest contract chipmaker, TSMC, are major suppliers to Apple Inc, and other global tech giants, as well as providers of chips for auto companies and lower-end consumer goods.
Taiwan's exports to China, the island's largest trading partner, plunged an annual 20.9 per cent to $13.56 billion in November after a 9.2 per cent drop in October.
The world's second-biggest economy was under pressure as China's exports and imports shrank at their steepest pace in at least 2 -- 1 2 years in November, because of the feeble global and domestic demand, COVID-led production disruptions and a property slump at home.
Taiwan's finance ministry said that December exports could contract in a range of 8 per cent to 12 per cent from a year ago because of the uncertainty surrounding China's coronavirus policy and the U.S. tech war.
The fourth quarter is traditionally the hot season for Taiwan's exports, as tech companies race to supply phones, tablets and other electronics for the year-end holiday period in Western markets, but not this year.
Beatrice Tsai, Ministry official, said that fourth quarter exports could drop more than 7 per cent year-on-year.
November's exports to the United States decreased by 11.3 per cent, compared with a 3.1 per cent expansion recorded the previous month.
Taiwan's November imports fell 8.6 per cent to $32.7 billion, compared with economists' expectations of a 0.6 per cent rise and after an increase of 8.2 per cent in October.