MOSCOW Reuters - Russia's current account surplus more than doubled year-on-year to $225.7 billion in January-November, from $108.6 billion, the central bank said on Friday, giving fiscal wiggle room as the country's economy heads into 2023 on shaky ground.
Russia is on track to post a record high current account surplus this year, after its imports of goods and services fell due to Western sanctions and high commodity prices boosted its export revenues.
The Institute of International Finance said that exports rather than import compression are responsible for the majority of the rise.
The central bank said that imports are slowly recovering after a sharp reduction. The surplus will decline in 2023 due to an oil price cap and export embargo.
The drop could put further strain on Russia's economy, already saddled with subdued consumer demand, falling disposable incomes and the impact of President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilisation order on workforce numbers.
The government has expressed concerns that labour shortages across the country could undermine any chance of Russia achieving a sustained economic recovery in the months ahead.
Evgeniy Nadorshin, chief economist at PF Capital, said at a debt market conference that the situation will be worse next year because of mobilisation.
Russia's economy is in danger of a 5 -- 10% economic contraction in 2023, with consumption and investments expected to drop, according to Nadorshin.
He said that we are dealing with the second toughest crisis in the 21st century. Domestic consumption and GDP are set back by 10 years or more and I don't see any prospects for growth after the recession ends. Officials and analysts have been gradually improving GDP forecasts for 2022, suggesting that restrictions against Moscow over its actions in Ukraine will lead to a less sudden but more prolonged contraction than first expected.
Alfa Bank economists predicted that the GDP declines at 6.5% next year, and that there will be falls in demand and investment. The economy ministry forecasts a 0.8% contraction.