Dollar rises as investors bet BOJ will shift policy

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Dollar rises as investors bet BOJ will shift policy

The dollar went up broadly on Thursday as growth concerns about the U.S. economy drove demand for the safe-haven greenback, while the yen rebounded as speculators doubled down on bets that the Bank of Japan would shift away from its yield curve control policy.

Weak U.S. data released on Wednesday showed retail sales fell by the most in a year in December and manufacturing output recorded its largest drop in nearly two years, fuelling fears that the world's largest economy is headed for a recession.

Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA Sterling, fell 0.15 per cent to $1.2330, a closer to the previous session's one-month high of $1.2435, while the euro was also some distance from Wednesday's nine-month high of $1.08875 due to the weak data.

The dollar was kept in bid due to the fresh wave of risk aversion - compounded by news of job cuts by tech giants Microsoft and Amazon.

Kong said that the effects of the FOMC tightening will just become more visible.

The Aussie fell 0.56 per cent to $0.6902, further pressured by a surprise dip in Australia's employment in December.

The kiwi lost 0.47 per cent to stand at $0.6415.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern made a shock announcement on Thursday that she would step down no later than early February and not seek re-election.

The dollar was last at 127.87 yen, a 0.82 per cent gain against the Japanese yen, unwinding its previous day's rally in the immediate aftermath of the BOJ's decision to stand pat on its ultra-loose monetary policy.

The BOJ kept its interest rate targets and yield band intact, and crafted a new weapon to prevent long-term rates from rising too much, in a show of resolve to maintain its YCC policy for the time being.

The decision sent the yen plunging 2 per cent against the dollar and against other currencies, along with Japanese government bond yields, which fell the most in two decades at one point.

Markets were quick to bounce back from the initial shock, and on Thursday continued to push back against the BOJ and test the resolve of its ultra-dovish stance.

The euro was at 138.03 yen last 0.78 per cent lower, while the sterling fell 0.81 per cent to 157.67 yen.

It's really reflecting the fact that market participants are still speculating a shift in the Bank of Japan's policy despite their inaction yesterday, said CBA's Kong.

There is still high expectations for a policy shift, but I think that will keep the yen relatively elevated in the near term. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.04 per cent to 102.29.