Trucks line up at the Ebina service area in Kanagawa Prefecture in May 2020. Asahi Shimbun file photo Japan is facing a crisis in the distribution of freight due to a projected shortage of truck drivers brought about by revised regulations on the number of hours they can work.
As much as 35 percent of all freight in Japan will not be shipped in 2030, according to Nomura Research Institute Ltd.
It estimated that the ratio of undeliverable cargo will be particularly acute in the northeastern region of Tohoku, as well as in Shikoku and other non-urban regions due to what is being labeled as the 2024 issue.
The revised working regulations for truck drivers will take effect in April next year and will place a cap on their operating hours. The labor crunch in the industry is expected to occur due to the move.
The institute suggested that delivery fees will increase dramatically, and in some cases match those set for remote islands unless improvements are made in transport efficiency.
The potential effect on freight distribution was predicted by tightened restrictions based on the anticipated volume of goods to be shipped in the future.
The undeliverable cargo rate will be highest in Tohoku at 41 percent, followed by Shikoku at 40 percent. It said 39 percent of goods will probably fail to reach their destinations in Kyushu and Hokkaido.
The proportions for the Kanto and Kinki regions, where major cities are located, will be as high as 34 percent and 36 percent, respectively.
By prefecture, Aomori, Kochi, and Nagasaki will book the largest numbers of 46 percent, 44 percent, 42 percent and 42 percent.
The institute noted that fewer people are seeking jobs as truck drivers in rural areas are struggling with dwindling birthrates and population aging.
It projected that the lower quality of service, marked by sharp shipping fee increases and less frequent deliveries, will be particularly noticeable in areas with lower population densities due to the lower efficiency of distribution.
The delivery failure ratio is projected to fall to 7 percent on a nationwide basis if freight owners work together to help out with deliverers.
A course of action was decided by a panel of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism on January 17 to deal with the issue of 2024.
Plans are being drawn up to make it mandatory for the three key parties involved in the industry - freight senders, recipients and delivery agencies - to develop strategies to reduce drivers waiting times after their arrival at warehouses and other destinations so they are not burdened by overwork.
The delivery agent will be required to clarify details of contracts, such as shipping fares, in advance to prevent repeated round-ups of subcontracting.