The cost of detaining and accommodating people under the UK government plans to tackle Channel crossings could amount to more than 9 billion dollars in the first three years, according to a refugee charity.
More than 250,000 people, including up to 45,000 children, could have their asylum claims deemed to be inadmissible under the illegal migration bill in that time, the Refugee Council said.
The charity said its policy experts came up with estimates as part of an impact assessment of the first three years of the bill, assuming it comes into force on November 7th, six months after it was introduced in Parliament.
The Home Office is able to bring 10,000 people to Rwanda in each of the three years, detaining people for an average of 28 days and accommodating those who are not detained.
In the first three years of the legislation in place, between 225,347 and 257,101 people will have their asylum claims deemed inadmissible, according to the Refugee Council assessment. This includes between 39,500 and 45,066 children.
Between 161,147 and 192,670 people will have had their asylum claims deemed inadmissible but not removed at the end of the third year. They will be unable to work, unable to work and reliant on Home Office support and accommodation indefinitely, because they will be unable to have their asylum claims processed.
Between 8.7 bn and 9.6 bn will have been spent on detaining and accommodating people affected by the bill in the first three years of its operation. The charity said that it used various data sources and made assumptions, including that 88% of people who cross the Channel in a small boat each year apply for asylum and it costs 120.42 to detain someone each day.
It said lower estimates assume 50% of people will be detained under the bill and upper estimates assume 100% of people will be detained.
The Home Office did not publish data on how many people who apply for asylum in a boat did not appear, and the organisation said it relies on existing data from reports by the Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration.
They take these dangerous journeys because no workable alternatives exist for them unlike Ukrainians who were rightly able to come to the UK on a visa scheme.
The current asylum system costs 3 billion dollars a year, including about 6 m a day on hotel accommodation.
A Home Office spokeswoman said that they did not recognise the figures used in the report, because they were not recognised by the Refugee Council's analysis. The bill is intended to act as a deterrent and reduce illegal migration when it comes into force.
The UK has a proud history of supporting those in need through our safe and legal routes and giving protection to more than half a million men, women and children.
We must take heed of the rise in illegal migration and stop the boats, because we are committed to ensuring there are routes to safety for vulnerable people across the globe. That is why we are making people in the UK illegally liable for detention and swift removal.