The ruling communist party is struggling to keep a lid on public anger caused by rampant inflation, hunger and blackouts, which is why it is holding elections Sunday to pick lawmakers.
The vote, decried as a sham by human rights groups, will pick 470 candidates who were pre-selected by the government to the powerful National Parliament for a five-year term. Since its inception in 1976, the Communist Party has had the ability to control the parliament.
Juan Antonio Blanco, a political analyst and founder of Cuba Siglo 21, said the only way to gauge anti-government sentiment is through the number of people who annul their vote or refuse to participate in the party's tight grip on the island.
The stacked election comes after crop failures, fuel shortages, and US sanctions are all hammering the economy, and gross domestic product remains below pre-pandemic level. Cubans are fleeing the biggest exodus since the communist party took power six decades ago, with little hope of change.
In the 12 months ending September, nearly a quarter of a million were intercepted at the US border. It is about 2% of the island's total population and up more than 400% from a year ago. Since the US changed its rules of entry in January, the rate has dropped significantly, but remains high.
The government led by President Miguel Diaz-Canel reacted to the outbreaks of unrest in 2021 with a crackdown on dissent, but also opened up opportunities for the private sector in the economy. The reforms haven't come fast enough to ease the hardship, and mass emigration is a major problem for the economy, said Carlos Saladrigas, chairman of the Cuba Study Group, a Florida-based think tank.
The government, the health care system, and everyone are complaining about losing workers to migration, Saladrigas said.
According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, the economy will grow by just 1.5% this year, down from 2% in 2022. The government insists that the vote is a unique form of democracy and is calling for citizens to head to the polls and check a single box that approves all 470 candidates, as a show of mass defiance against US sanctions. Diaz-Canel wrote on Twitter that the party was hoping for an energetic and uneniable victory in the election.