Poland's core inflation will probably decrease in the next few months and quarters and will certainly begin decreasing in H 2, the governor of the National Bank of Poland NBP has said.
Adam Glapinski held a press conference on Thursday after the NBP Monetary Policy Council's decision to keep all interest rates unchanged for the eight month running, with the reference interest rate remaining at 6.75 percent.
Poland's core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, measured 12 percent year-on-year in March 2023, up from 12 percent in February.
In April 2023, the Consumer price index of Consumer goods and services GUS increased by 14.7 percent year on year and 0.7 percent month on month in April 2023.
Core inflation that has received more attention recently. In many countries, there is a marked rise in the cost of living and remains high. This applies to the countries of the euro zone, the USA, and especially to the countries of our region. There is nothing unusual about our core inflation, Glapinski said.
In the near future, we predict that core inflation will drop. It should be decreasing already in H2, to reach a single-digit level by the end of the year, Glapinski said.
The shocks that hit the economy were responsible for maintaining high core inflation, he said. Entrepreneurs added the rising prices of raw materials and energy into the price of their products and this spread further. Glapinski notes that the good job situation on the labor market is facilitated by the increase in prices.
The supply gap in Poland has likely closed and buyers can no longer propose arbitrary prices, he said. As for the Polish economy, prospects for H 2 and 2024 are good, with continued economic growth and positive real wage growth, he said.