Virgin Galactic, a space tourism firm, started in 2017 with its mission to explore space. Branson was then IPOed in 2019, sent Sir Richard Branson to space in 2021, and began regular commercial spaceflights in June 2023. Virgin Galactic has something interesting to report, and it seems like every couple of years, it seems. When will Virgin Galactic's first profit be announced? The answer will probably be longer than in a couple more years. A few months ago, I walked investors through the financial conflict at Virgin Galactic, which comes in at $125 million per quarter in operating expenses but brings in far less than $125 million in revenue. Virgin Galactic's earnings will be more than likely to decline in profits by the end of the year, because profit equals revenue minus cost. When will Virgin Galactic make a profit? After figuring out how many spaceplanes Virgin Galactic needs to build and the number of times it needs to fly them each quarter to obtain $125 million in revenue to offset its $125 million in expenses, I concluded there's no solution for Virgin Galactic to turn profitable before 2026 at the earliest. However, after 2026, I calculated that Virgin Galactic might turn profitable if it can build a fleet of eight spaceplanes, fly each of them once per week and collect at least $1.25 million in ticket revenue per flight. And it appears Virgin Galactic agrees with me. Last week, Ars Technica senior space editor Eric Berger got Virgin Galactic President Mike Moses to sit down for an interview, and give up some facts and figures on what this space company is planning for its future in general - and for its Delta-class spaceplanes in particular. Virgin Galactic's next flight will take off Sept. 8, but it will carry only three paying passengers. VSS Unity, which flew first in 2016 and then flew again in 2016, was designed to fly 500 to 1,000 times - or 10 years - before retirement. The Delta-class ships will be built and assembled like a Lego Star Destroyer, compared to VSS Unity, which was manufactured and assembled layer by layer like building a Lego Star Destroyer. Virgin Galactic wants a couple dozen Delta-class spaceships. Delta's fleet of self-driving engines can currently be constructed at the rate of 20 per month, allowing an upper limit of 60 total flights per quarter. To reach 100 flights per quarter, Virgin Galactic will require a second mothership and a total of four to eight Delta-class spaceplanes. Interestingly, that's the same number of spaceplanes that I calculated Virgin Galactic would need to reach breakeven profits. S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence currently believe that Virgin Galactic will shift from losing money to making money in 2027 and grow its profits steadily thereafter. And yet, seeing how Virgin Galactic's official estimates compare so well with my very unofficial estimates, I've got a better grasp on the company and its prospects than the analysts do. However, for investors, this means that the analysts are probably wrong about Virgin Galactic. If we expect the first Delta-class spaceplane to fly in 2026, and flies once per week with six passengers paying $1.5 million in total ticket prices, this represents $78 million in revenue that year. With a loss of $125 million, Virgin Galactic's operating expenses are not enough to turn a profit, and the situation gets worse when Virgin Galactic continues to fly fewer than six passengers per flight, resulting in correspondingly less revenue. If Virgin Galactic can fly enough passengers paying the company's recently raised ticket price of $450,000, the company can get a second or third spaceplane into service. However, that's if everything goes right, he said. The worst case scenario is Virgin Galactic's failure to earn a profit in 2027 by reducing the number of passengers per flight, fewer flights per month, too many passengers paying $250,000 instead of $450,000, or fewer planes in service. Even if everything goes right, there's still the cost of building an extra mothership and four to eight new spaceplanes - from $50 million to $60 million a pop - to consider. However, these added costs must be subtracted from Virgin Galactic's earnings, pushing profitability further down into the future. Virgin Galactic may eventually turn into a profitable corporation, according to a report published by The New York Times. But if I were a betting man, I would not lay odds on this happening in 2026, 2027, or 2028, either.