China exports fell 14.5 pct. in July

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China exports fell 14.5 pct. in July

Exports fell by 14.5 percent last month from a year earlier to US$281.76 billion, compared with a drop of 12.4 percent in June.

The July figure was lower than expectations for a fall of 4.8 per cent, according to Wind, a leading provider of financial information services in China.

Capital Economics analysts said the fall was mostly due to base effects and lower prices, while their estimates when accounting for seasonality and changes in export prices showed export volumes edged down by only 0.9 percent, month-on-month.

The authors said that strong shipments of green technology, including Chinese-made electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels, were helping to offset declines in other areas.

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base effects skewed annual comparisons to the downside as manufacturers emerged from the Shanghai lockdowns in June and July last year, Loo said.

The decrease in exports was again broad-based across all major trading partners, according to Nomura analysts.

shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China's largest trade partner and one that provided substantial support to its export sector earlier this year, fell by 21.43 percent in July compared with a year earlier, marking the second consecutive monthly decline.

exports to the European Union fell by 20.62 percent year-on-year, while shipments to the United States dropped for the 12th consecutive month by falling 23.12 percent in July.

Export growth to the US has suffered heavily again, said Nomura, Nomura's analysts.

China's trade surplus with the US was increased to US$30.3 billion in July, from US$28.7 billion in June.

Imports fell by 12.4 percent in July from a year earlier to US$201.16 billion, down from a drop of 8.8 percent in June.

This was also below expectations by Wind for a fall of 11.4 per cent, with Nomura analysts at Nomura saying 'import growth came in well below expectations amid weak domestic demand'.

'It reversed most of the gains made earlier in the year. It suggests that the downturn in domestic demand continues to gather pace in July.

Import growth from the US fell to minus 11.4 per cent from minus 4.2 per cent, which may reflect the highly restrictive US embargoes on semiconductor exports, which continued to hinder China's imports of goods from the US.

China's total trade surplus rose to a three-month high of US$80.6bn in July compared to US$70.62bn in June.

Nomura's team said they were confident the decision was right.

Capital Economics analysts forecast that exports will decline further over the next few months before bottoming out toward the end of the year.

Loo said he does not expect exports to turn the corner until the first quarter of next year as the combined forces of a weak consumption recovery in the euro area, a potential recession in the US and squeezed real incomes in the UK have weighed on the near-term outlook.

'[The trade data] suggest that the prospects for growth are worsening. A worsening export contraction means weaker production, while rapidly deteriorating imports reflect weaker demand within China, said analysts at Nomura.

Despite the double whammy of the property sector and contracting exports, growth to take more time to rebound.

s policy support and underestimating the downward pressures.