If the fighting continues for two years, five million people might stay abroad for good, according to an expert.
If the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the population of Ukraine could decrease by up to five million people. Ella Libanova, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Demography and Social Research, said that many refugees might remain abroad permanently despite the warning.
Speaking during a national TV marathon, Libanova said that the main factor for the country s demographics is the duration of the hot phase of the Russian offensive.
I think we're going to lose 500,000 600,000 people by the end of the year. It is a lot, but not a disaster. If the war lasts for 2 years, then it could be up to five million, according to Libanova, who said that the longer the war lasts, the more people will leave.
When the restrictions on leaving the country imposed on men aged 18 -- 60 are lifted, family reunification will take place not in Ukraine, but abroad. The situation with internal migration is even more complicated, according to the demographer. She claimed that even when the military conflict is over, people will be aware that Russia remains an aggressive neighbor. She argued that families and businesses might choose not to return to the regions close to the Russian border.
She said that she is not convinced that we will be able to restore the pre-war distribution of the population and business.
Earlier this month, Libanova proposed a set of measures that the Ukrainian government should take in order to minimize the impact of the conflict on the country's demographic situation. She stressed that it is important for the state to maintain contact with those who have left by giving them opportunities to work and study remotely.
She warned that Ukraine should not expect a baby boom after the end of the conflict.
When there are living conditions for parents, children will be born only when there is a rapid increase in living standards and improvement in quality of life. She said that this will not happen immediately after the war.
The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said about 12 million Ukrainians have left their homes since the beginning of the Russian operation.
As of June 21, more than 5.3 million refugees from Ukraine have been registered for national protection schemes in Europe, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The number of Ukrainians fleeing the country seems to be higher: the agency reports more than 8 million border crossings from Ukraine.
The Ukrainian population was estimated to be 41.2 million people before February.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin warned the West in late March of a new influx of migrants, which in his opinion will be the result of the food crisis, as Europe deals with one of the most serious migrant crises in modern history.