New Measure of Bitcoin hashrate revealed

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New Measure of Bitcoin hashrate revealed

The value of Bitcoin's global network hashrate may appear to be an objective metric, but researcher and Cypherpunk Jameson Lopp has revealed that measuring it exactly is deceptively tricky. Lopp described his 'hunt for the real Bitcoin hashrate' by examining the accuracy of various estimation algorithms.

Most hashrate estimates derive from blockchain data like difficulty targets and block times, Lopp said. In a statement, however, he added that the volatility in estimates over shorter timeframes was not significant. re only using the past 10 blocks the hashrate can appear much higher or lower than it is, Lopp said.

Lopp created a benchmark for testing blockchain-based estimates by aggregating hashrate data reported directly from mining pools. He found that the commonly used 1,000 block estimate had a 3.8% average error rate. Lopp then tried blending multiple estimates, optimizing for accuracy. The algorithm used 10 predictions from 100 to 1,000 blocks, throwing out short-term low estimates, and yielded a 3.5% error rate.

Although Lopp acknowledges no direct financial incentives, his goal was a more accurate standard metric. He expects the hashrate to keep rising aggressively until the event, calling it 'well known' and 'priced in' by miners. Lopp predicted a negligible drop in the hashrate after halving, despite some miners shutting down.

Lopp's POW summit talk can be streamed online for free. Lopp, the co-founder and CTO of Casa, a company that focuses on Bitcoin-secure storage options, is the co-founder and CTO. He worked as a software engineer at BitGo, a security service for Bitcoin and other digital currencies.

Lopp is renowned for his education efforts in crypto, frequently writing and speaking about various aspects of Bitcoin. He maintains a comprehensive resource list for technical information about Bitcoin, blockchain, and their potential impact on society. He is committed to privacy and individual sovereignty, reflected in his work and public statements.