Public Favors Ishiba and Koizumi for LDP Leadership
A recent Asahi Shimbun survey revealed that Shigeru Ishiba and Shinjiro Koizumi are the most popular candidates among the public for the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election. Both candidates received 21% support in the nationwide survey conducted on August 24th and 25th.
Ishiba, a former LDP secretary-general, is making his fifth attempt at the party's top post. He has declared this will be his final run. Koizumi, a former environment minister, is the son of popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
With Prime Minister Fumio Kishida opting not to seek re-election, the winner of the LDP election is virtually guaranteed to become the next Prime Minister. A record 11 candidates are expected to compete in the September 27th election, with the outcome decided by LDP members and lawmakers.
Following Ishiba and Koizumi, the survey found Sanae Takaichi, the economic security minister, as the third most popular candidate with 8% support. Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and digital transformation minister Taro Kono both received 6% support, while former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi garnered 5%.
The survey also revealed that 22% of respondents did not favor any of the 11 potential candidates.
Among LDP supporters, Koizumi was the preferred choice with 28% support, followed by Ishiba at 23%, Takaichi at 12%, Kono at 8%, Kamikawa at 7%, and Kobayashi at 5%.
The survey also explored party support preferences. The LDP received 26% support, up 2 points from the previous survey in July. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) saw its support increase by 2 points to 7%, while Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) received 2% support, down 1 point.
Komeito, the LDP's junior coalition partner, gained 1 point to reach 3% support, while the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) saw its support decrease by 1 point to 2%. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi both remained at 1% support.
The survey also asked respondents which party they would choose in the proportional representation segment of a hypothetical Lower House election. The LDP received 32% support, up 3 points, followed by the CDP at 15% (up 1 point), Nippon Ishin at 10% (down 1 point), and Komeito at 5% (up 1 point). The JCP received 3% support (down 2 points), the DPP 4% (up 1 point), and Reiwa Shinsengumi 4% (down 1 point). The Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Free Education for All remained at 1% and 2% respectively, while Sanseito gained 1 point to reach 2%.
The survey was conducted using randomly generated phone numbers and yielded 1,058 valid responses, with 420 on landlines and 638 on mobile phones. The valid response rates were 44% for landlines and 39% for mobile phones.