The data from Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reveals that in October, nearly 57,000 migrants were apprehended between legal entry points along the U.S. southern border, a slight increase from the previous month. This consistency in apprehension numbers has been maintained for the past few months, with figures similar to those recorded in August and July.
Historical CBP data shows that the last time monthly apprehensions were lower than the current levels was four years ago, in September 2020. The decline in illegal crossings earlier this year was attributed to Mexico's efforts to intercept migrants bound for the U.S. and President Biden's implementation of measures to limit asylum, leading to a significant drop in crossings. However, the numbers have since stabilized.
As the presidential election approaches, concerns have emerged regarding a potential surge in illegal crossings if former President Donald Trump is elected, as he has vowed to tighten immigration policies and seal the southern border. Conversely, Vice President Kamala Harris has promised to uphold President Biden's asylum restrictions, which could influence migration patterns depending on the election outcome.
Adam Isacson, a migration policy analyst, anticipates that migration flows will remain consistent if Harris wins the election, as she plans to continue Biden's policies. However, he foresees a significant increase in border crossings if Trump is elected, particularly by migrants waiting in Mexico for appointments through the CBP One app, with a sense of urgency created by an impending hard deadline set by Inauguration Day.