What to Expect
Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, believes Tesla's Cybercab won't be available until 2026. He also predicts that the company will not disclose any details about the new, cheaper model until right before its launch to avoid impacting Model 3 or Model Y sales in the fourth quarter.
Black's prediction is based on Tesla's third-quarter earnings call transcript, where Elon Musk tied the topic of a cheaper Tesla EV to a forecast of 20-30% YoY volume growth for 2025. He believes those who doubt the launch of a more affordable compact model priced between $25,000 and $30,000 with four seats, a steering wheel, and pedals are overlooking key details.
Meanwhile, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives highlights that the next major milestone investors are waiting for is a formal federal framework for Full Self-Driving (FSD). He believes it will provide a significant boost to Tesla's autonomous and AI ambitions in 2025 and 2026.
Earlier this week, the Cybercab was spotted undergoing tests at the Giga Texas facility. The vehicle, priced below $30,000, is a key element of the company's plan to transform urban transportation through self-driving vehicles.
However, the autonomous vehicle industry faces skepticism. Lucid Group Inc. CEO Peter Rawlinson previously said that self-driving cars won't be a reality until the 2030s.
In October, Tesla reported its third-quarter revenue, which reached $25.18 billion, marking an 8% increase compared to the previous year. However, the figure fell short of the Street's consensus estimate of $25.37 billion.
Tesla's stock finished at $345.16 on Friday, rising 3.69% for the day. In after-hours trading, it saw a slight uptick of 0.081%. Year-to-date, Tesla's stock has surged by 38.94%.
The consensus rating for Tesla stock is "Neutral," according to data from Benzinga Pro. The highest price target is $400, while the consensus target stands at $232.20, suggesting a 33% downside from current prices.