
The recent detention of South Korea's impeached president, Yoon Suk-yeol, has cast a shadow over Japan's relations with its neighboring country and the trilateral partnership it holds with the United States. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya has attempted to address concerns about the potential fallout from Yoon's detention, stressing the significance of cooperation between Japan and South Korea and stating that the importance of their partnership will only increase over time.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had been working towards enhancing the positive developments in Japan-South Korea relations initiated by his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, and Yoon Suk-yeol. Despite meeting with Yoon twice since taking office in October, Ishiba canceled plans to visit South Korea after Yoon's declaration of martial law in December, which plunged the nation into turmoil. Yoon, who had made strides in improving bilateral relations strained by historical issues, now faces charges linked to his action of imposing martial law in December.
One of the key achievements of Yoon was reaching a political settlement with Kishida on a longstanding dispute regarding Korean laborers who had worked in Japanese factories and mines during World War II. The agreement led to the listing of gold mines on Sado Island in Niigata Prefecture as a UNESCO World Cultural Heritage site in July. However, historical issues between Japan and South Korea, such as disputes over memorial events and differing perceptions of the past, have the potential to reignite tensions between the two countries. The Democratic Party of Korea, South Korea's main opposition party that opposed Yoon, has taken a firm stance on historical issues with Japan, adding another layer of complexity to the bilateral relationship.
Moreover, the uncertain political landscape in the region is further complicated by the upcoming transition in the U.S. presidency, as Donald Trump, known for his "America First" agenda, will replace Joe Biden as president. Trump's previous indifference to multilateral cooperation frameworks and his lack of interest in mediating between Japan and South Korea suggest a potential shift in dynamics among the three nations. Past instances, like the close call in 2019 when South Korea considered scrapping the General Security of Military Information Agreement with Japan, demonstrate the fragility of the trilateral relationships and the essential role the U.S. has played in stabilizing them.