Boris Johnson is facing a major test of his leadership at Cop 26 climate summit as the chancellor and the business secretary are at war over the imminent plan to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions.
The government is slated to announce its long-anticipated net zero strategy on Monday, setting out how the UK will meet its targets to reduce CO emissions by 78% by 2035 and achieve net zero by 2050. This will also include the heat and buildings strategy to fuel draughty homes and phasing out gas boilers, along with a massive expansion of offshore wind, building electric vehicle charging networks.
But green campaigners are concerned that the strategies put forward by Rishi Sunak are threatened by opposition from Kwasi Kwarteng who is refusing to provide adequate funding.
Failure to put forward a viable and well-funded blueprint for reaching net zero would damage the credibility of the UK at a crucial time, campaigners have said, just weeks before the UN Cop 26 climate talks begin in Glasgow at the end of this month.
Ed Matthew, campaign director of green thinktank E 3 G, said: To achieve an ambitious outcome at Cop 26, the government has to lead by example. If they have no desire to become more aggressive than that of the rest of the world how would they make sure that he achieves net zero? The whole political strategy is absolutely dependent on having a credible plan in place in the UK. Kwarteng has spoken publicly in favour of decarbonization of electricity generation by 2035 and is pushing net zero behind the scenes. This is a new departure for the business secretary, coming from a strongly market standpoint as one of the authors of Britannia Unchained. Aber insiders say the pandemic has changed his outlook and that he had elements of green conversion yet he is still intent on licensing new oil and gas in the North Sea.
With the pandemic and the energy crisis, he is seeing the need for government intervention, said one close observer. Renewable energy security is now a key theme and building renewables can help with this. Sunak, who controls the purse strings, is understood to be strongly opposed to devoting new money to the climate effort. He was notably silent on the climate, net zero strategy and Cop 26 in his speech to Tory party conference earlier this month.
It s astonishing that Matthew did not mention climate change: the largest threat to the UK economy, and with Cop 26 approaching, said Matthew. Without the Treasury, we can not be on track to net zero, because we need not just policies but investment, this is the litmus test. A government source denied any split and told the Guardian: This is a whole Government Approach: every department has signed up for net zero, and the prime minister is the biggest proponent of this agenda. The preparation of the strategy by the Treasury has been smooth. The Treasury is also expected to publish its own Net Zero findings on Monday in the form of a review which is expected to set out the costs to reach net zero. The Treasury Net Zero review is controversial among green experts, as the Guardian understands it will not take account of the many benefits of cutting emissions, including green jobs, lower energy bills and health improvements from eliminating air pollution as well as reducing the impacts of extreme weather.
It is as if the Stern review never happened, said one expert, referring to the landmark 2006 study by climate economist Nicholas Stern, which found the economic costs of emissions were far outweighed by short-term benefits. They have stuck to their old model of cost. Climate-sceptics believe the Treasury Review will be seized on in the ranks of green campaigners by Tory sceptics. They are also concerned that lobbying by the fossil fuel industry has convinced the government to make hydrogen a leading part of its net zero strategy. They argue that some forms of hydrogen are not low-CO, as certain forms of hydrogen require fossil fuels to be stored and the resulting CO converted, in contrast with genuine green hydrogen methods, which hydrogen is manufactured using renewable energy.
Hydrogen boilers are greenwash, said Matthew. Christian Aid, Global Climate Manager in New Zealand, said: "The government is currently promoting false solutions that effectively subsidise fossil fuel industry. It is crazy that they plan to use taxpayers money for hydrogen made from fossil fuels rather than renewable resources and for capturing carbon from fossil fuels and storing it underground. A Treasury spokesperson said: We are absolutely committed to meeting our world-leading climate commitments and the prime minister's 10 point plan set out 12 bn of investment for green industries. What are some good examples of government in private sector investment, but most stressed the importance of economic inclusion, adding that government alone cannot achieve net zero, which is why we are working with the private sector to boost investment and lead the world in green finance.