The path of inflation may have hit a detour in October, with economists saying that the pace of price growth will remain the same or even bump higher in data released Wednesday, despite aggressive rate hikes working their way through the economy.
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You can see other videos from our team by tapping here. If so, the year-over-year rate would go up by half point to 7.4 per cent year-over-year Holt further wrote. Traditional core CPI ex-food and energy is expected to rise by about 0.7 per cent month-over-month, seasonally adjusted and lift the year-over-year rate above six per cent. The Bank of Canada has gone from zero to 3.75 per cent by late October and increased its policy rate by three and a half percentage points since March. Since then, the inflation rate that hit a peak of 8.1 per cent in June has cooled, but core inflation has remained stubbornly high in September. Inflation was up 5.4 per cent from a year ago, up from 5.3 per cent the month before, excluding food and energy. Despite the easing headline number, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce chief economist Avery Shenfeld said that disinflation calls were premature. In Canada, the headline rate is going to be higher this month and possibly for one more month ahead, as a bump in gasoline prices pushes the headline rate higher this month, and possibly for one more month ahead, Shenfeld said in a Nov. 10 note to clients. The markets are a bit premature in predicting a broader disinflation just yet, because we need to get into more of the slowing effects of interest rate hikes before that really shows up, which will be a 2023 story. Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, expects headline inflation to jump north of seven per cent, narrowing the gap between Canadian and U.S. CPI rates.