MONTREAL, Sept 20 Reuters - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may cling to power in Tuesday's election but looks set to lose his bid for a parliamentary majority after a tough campaign that shone his hopes for a convincing win.
Trudeau has a minority administration, forcing him to rely on other parties and make political compromises to govern. With opinion polls showing him far ahead in the polls last month, he triggered the vote two years early, saying voters needed to weigh in on his left-of-center Liberal government's handling of COVID -19.
However, as unhappiness about the large call grew, he failed to maintain his early lead. Liberal strategists concede it will be hard to win most seats in the House of Commons.
In recent days, Trudeau, 49 - whose government racked up record debt fighting COVID - 19 - focused on the need for everyone to be inoculated. He supports vaccine mandates, while conservative leader Erin O'Toole, 48, prefers rapid testing.
We need clear, strong leadership that will continue to unequivocally push vaccines, and that's what we will do. Mr. O'Toole, he can't and he won't, Trudeau told supporters in Niagara Falls, Ontario, on Sunday in the last day of a frantic tour that saw him travel 2,800 miles 4,500 km across Canada.
What would be the real consequences of Trudeau falling short of a majority in the country?
In 2015, in 2015 the charismatic conservative politician swept to power by Peter Trudeau, son of the former longtime Liberal Prime Minister. But he was reduced in 2019 after old photos of him in blackface emerged.
Polls show the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives, which theoretically gives Trudeau an advantage, since Liberal strength is in urban centers that are home to most seats
There is no world in which there is not tight, said a senior Liberal strategist. Liberals concede that voters could be turned off by the election call. Low turnout tends to favor the Conservatives.
The Liberals compete with the left-leaning New Democrats, while the anti-vaccination left-wing People's Party of Canada could hurt the conservatives.
Justin Trudeau wants you to stay home tomorrow. O'Toole wanted you to vote PPC, Justin Trudeau told supporters on Sunday. Polls in Canada's most populous regions will close between 9: 30 and 10 p.m. EDT 0130 - 0200 GMT Tuesday An early indication of Liberal fortunes will come after 7: 30 p.m. EDT 2330 GMT when votes in the four Atlantic provinces are counted The Liberals hold 27 of the 32 seats there.
Trudeau has taken a cautious line in public, sidestepping questions about a potential majority.
I want as many Liberals as possible to be elected across the country because we need a strong government," he told reporters in Montreal on Sunday. In private aides are less shy.
You don't call an election during a pandemic just to get another minority government, said one.