In the days before last year s insurrection, intelligence reports from the U.S. Capitol Police envisioned only an improbable or remote risk of violence, even as other assessments warned that thousands of pro-Trump demonstrators could converge in Washington and create a dangerous situation.
The documents obtained by The Associated Press underscored the uneven and muddled intelligence that was circulated to Capitol Police officers ahead of the Jan. 6 riot when thousands of Trump loyalists swarmed the Capitol complex and clashed violently with law enforcement officers in an effort to disrupt the certification of the results of the 2020 presidential election. The police agency, up to the day of the riot itself, underestimated the possibility of chaos and disruptions, according to the intelligence reports.
The government's intelligence produced by law enforcement leading up to the riot has been at the forefront of congressional scrutiny of the Jan. 6 preparations and response, with officials struggling to explain how they didn't anticipate and plan for the deadly riot at the Capitol that day. The shortcomings resulted in an upheaval in the top ranks of the department, including the ouster of the chief, though the assistant chief in charge of protective and intelligence operations at the time remains in her position.
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According to a harshly critical Senate report released in June, there was a lack of consensus about the threat posed on January 6, 2021, according to the Senate report. The report stated that there was still no consensus among USCP officials about the intelligence reports threat analysis ahead of January 6, 2021, a month after the attack on the U.S. Capitol.
The documents, known as a daily intelligence report and marked for official use only, have been described in congressional testimony and Senate report over the last year. The AP obtained full versions of the documents for Jan. 4, 5 and 6 last year. On each of the three days, the documents showed that the Capitol Police ranked the possibility of acts of civil disobedience and arrests arising from the Stop the Steal protest planned for the Capitol. The documents ranked that event and gatherings planned for Jan 6 by about 20 other organizers on a scale of remote to nearly certain in terms of the likelihood of major disruptions. The documents show that all were rated as remote, highly improbable or improbable.
The Jan. 6 report says that there is no more information about the exact actions planned by this group.
The Million MAGA March planned by Trump supporters is rated as improbable, with officials saying it was possible that organizers could demonstrate at the Capitol complex, even though there had been talk of counter-demonstrators, there are no clear plans by those groups at this time. A group known as Prime Time Patriots has described its situation as having a highly improbable chance of disruption, with the report stating that no further information has been found to the exact actions planned by this group. The optimistic forecasts are hard to match with the intelligence assessments compiled by the Capitol Police in late December and early January. The documents, obtained by AP, warned that crowds could number in the thousands and include members of extremist groups like the Proud Boys.
A Jan. 3, 2021 memo warned of a dangerous situation for law enforcement and the general public alike because of the potential attendance of white supremacists, militia members and others who actively promote violence. The target of the pro-Trump supporters is not necessarily the counter-protestors as they were previously, but Congress itself is the target on the 6th, according to the report.
A Jan. 5 bulletin prepared by the FBI's Norfolk field office warned of the potential for war at the Capitol. Capitol Police leaders said they were not aware of that document at the time. FBI Director Chris Wray said the report was disseminated through the FBI's joint terrorism task force, discussed at a command post in Washington and posted on an internet portal available to other law enforcement agencies.
Capitol Police officials insist that they have no specific or credible intelligence that a demonstration at the Capitol would result in a large-scale attack on the building. Despite scrutiny of intelligence shortcomings, Yogananda Pittman, the assistant chief of intelligence at the time of the riot, remains in that position.
The current police chief, J. Thomas Manger, defended Pittman in a September interview with the AP, pointing out her decision to implement recommendations made by the inspector general and expand the department's internal intelligence capabilities so officers wouldn't need to rely so heavily on intelligence collected by other law enforcement agencies.