WASHINGTON - The biggest question on Capitol Hill as Congress embarks on its final legislative sprint of 2021 is whether the Senate will pass President Joe Biden's $1.7 trillion economic safety net and climate bill.
When senators return Monday, they'll have two weeks to meet their self-imposed Christmas deadline. It could all be dependent on centrist Joe Manchin, D-W. Va., the linchpin of the 50 -- 50 Senate.
We have 49 of us in agreement to move forward. We have a colleague that we're continuing to work with, and he's been successful and making a number of changes. "And so I hope he'll be joining us," said Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich. a member of the Democratic leadership.
The Democrats shaped much of the bill around the demands of Manchin, who was a ruby-red state that Biden lost 39 points last year. If he bolts, the package collapses. Republicans are trying to turn him against it, and they are pulling out all the stops.
Republicans are solidifying their advantage ahead of the midterm elections next year, as Biden struggles to revive his popularity. The legislation to build Back Better is a rare political bright spot for Democrats, as it remains popular among Americans.
A Monmouth University poll last week found that Biden's job approval rating had fallen to a low of 40 percent, but his safety net bill enjoyed 61 percent support - largely unchanged since June.
The bill was branded by the Democrats as an antidote to pocketbook concerns, most notably inflation.
This is about lowering costs for people that have been out of control for a long time. On top of the list of prescription drugs and child care, Stabenow said.
The Republicans have tried to influence Manchin by requesting a revised version of the Build Back Better bill from the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO estimated that there would be $3 trillion added to the deficit from 2022 to 2031, assuming that all temporary programs will be extended without being paid for, although the current version does not include extensions for the provisions.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, the ranking member of the Budget Committee, said the bill is a budget gimmick, predicting that none of the programs would end.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., dismissed the assessment as a fake CBO score, noting that Biden and Democrats pledged to pay if programs are extended in the Build Back Better legislation.
The debt ceiling must be lifted by Wednesday and Congress must pass a massive defense bill this month. The main obstacles have been lifted.
The House plans to bring back former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows to the House for criminal prosecution for defying a subpoena, as the Jan. 6 Select Committee dials up its investigation of the Capitol riot. In anticipation, Meadows filed a lawsuit against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and the panel, asking a federal court to block enforcement of the subpoenas issued to him and Verizon for his phone records.
The Senate will have to change it to win the votes of all 50 Democratic-voting senators after the House passed the Build Back Better Act last month.
The $80,000 cap for federal deductions for state and local taxes is expected to be diluted, and guaranteed paid leave is likely to be removed to draw Manchin's vote.
Manchin opposes a tax credit for electric vehicles made at unionized factories. After Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev. conveyed Democratic leaders and the Biden administration that she opposes a nicotine tax, two Democratic aides said it would most likely be dropped.
We are looking at making sure that we are not increasing the costs and taxes on anyone making less than $400,000. My concern is that this is a regressive tax that's going to affect the very people in my state that we're saying that we're not increasing costs for, said Cortez Masto.
The Senate's parliamentarian still has to decide whether other measures, including provisional work permits for millions of people in the U.S., comply with the rules governing reconciliation, an arcane budget process that allows certain bills to be passed with a simple majority.
The Senate's Finance and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committees released an updated version of their sections of the bill over the weekend. Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said they will hold bipartisan meetings with the parliamentarian over the coming week, where Republicans can challenge provisions.
Some Democrats say the party should ignore the parliamentarian's advice and include the policy anyway. Manchin rejected that, saying he intends to stick with the parliamentarian. Schumer set a deadline for Christmas to pass the bill because Democrats fear that the onset of the 2022 election year will make lawmakers more nervous about passing an aggressive piece of legislation.
There is a tangible deadline. The American Rescue Plan passed a $250 to $300 monthly per-child cash payment for parents, which Democrats passed this month, but they aren't extended. The Build Back Better Act would extend them for one more year.
Manchin downplayed the concern and said the most important thing is to get the bill right. We haven't seen the complete scrub from the parliamentarian. He said that he hasn't seen how it washes out if you do the Byrd bath, referring to the process of ensuring that a bill complies with the Byrd rule, which limits the budget process to spending and taxes. We haven't seen the final text. They are still negotiating with all the different parts of it.