People wearing protective masks walk on a street after the new cases of the coronaviruses COVID - 19 in Shanghai, China, December 1, 2021. MELBOURNE, December 5, Reuters - The coronaviruses have weakened China's power in the Indo-Pacific, and the region's deepening security uncertainties present a risk of war, the Lowy Institute said in a report on Sunday.
U.S. allies in the region and key balancing powers such as India have never been more dependent on American capacity and willingness to sustain a military and strategic counterweight in response to China's rise, said the Sydney-based foreign policy think tank.
At the same time, Beijing tried to dissuade Southeast Asian countries from joining the U.S. coalition, while upgrading its military exchanges with Russia and Pakistan as well as North Korea and creating a formidable trio of China-aligned nuclear-armed powers in the region.
The report said that whether the emerging balance of military power contributes to deterrence and strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific is an open question.
The risk of war is significant because of the depth of hostilities, the breadth of U.S. China competition and the presence of multiple potential flashpoints. The effects of the pandemic have hurt the prosperity of the region, weakening China's comprehensive power.
The report said that there was nothing inevitable about China's rise in the world as a result of the fact that Beijing is less likely to pull ahead of its rival in comprehensive power by the end of the decade. Australia, whose relations with China have deteriorated significantly in recent years, has better weathered China's growing power than most U.S. partners, but is more dependent on Washington, according to the think tank.
In 2018, Australia banned Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies Co from its 5 G telecommunications network. A series of trade reprisals came from China last year when Canberra called for an independent investigation into the origins of the coronaviruses.