Dollar held within bit of the year's peaks ahead of Fed's policy statement

148
3
Dollar held within bit of the year's peaks ahead of Fed's policy statement

The dollar held within a bit of the year's peaks on the euro and ean on Wednesday as investors looked for Federal Reserve to start unwinding pandemic-era policy support faster than central banks in Europe and Japan.

The dollar traded at $1.1578 per euro against the year's top of $1.1522 per euro, which was slight ahead of the Fed's meeting later in the day, as it bought 113.94 yen against a 2021 peak of 114.69, and traded at $1.1578 per euro against the year's top of $1.1522 per euro. The U.S. dollar index held overnight gains to 94.117 at the beginning of the day.

The Fed will announce the capeating of its asset purchase programme in its policy statement at 1800 GMT, according to the Fed's policy statement.

After a month of seismic moves in the bond market in anticipation of a hikes as soon as next year, traders are focused on clues about what that means for timing of rate rising.

A day ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia dropped its short term yield target and had expectations of holding rates at record lows until 2024, though the Aussie fell because the bank pushed back on aggressive pricing for 2022 hikes.

The Aussie dropped 2% against the dollar on Tuesday and sat at $0.7430 on Wednesday. The kiwi was dropped 1% lower but found support on Wednesday from strong labour data and hovered at $0.7123.

The relative pace of policy tightening and traders' perception of the relative pace of policy tightening will often be dependent on traders' perception of the Fed funds rate to be higher than 1.75% through the cycle.

The Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin said that Fed policy is under challenge in ways that cannot be remembered since the early Volcker years.

He stated that the economy has been pricing off zero nominal rates and dramatic negative real rates for the last 18 months.

The dollar has been held back by the rising expectations of faster hiking in other parts of the world but risks may be going to be ahead if traders think there will be more than a few rate increases to stay focused on fast-rising prices.

If the real economy expected to rate hikes is correct, and inflation is stubborn, the market expectations on the terminal funds rate at near 1.75% by the end of 2026 looks too low, he said.

A Bank of England meeting on this week is where swaps pricing point to a modest rate increase, but a falling currency suggests a risk of disappointment or at least a fairly stern pushback against market inflation expectations.

I leaned towards a 15 bps increase at the meeting with a 5 -- 4 vote in favour, said Luke Suddards, strategist at Pepperstone.

I would say that the risk is for sterling to weaken if they decided rather to hold, and we see some dovish repricing in money markets. The pound set just above a two week low in Asia, roughly in the bottom half of the range it has traded since July.

The French central bank head Francois Villeroy de Galhau is most notable at 1300 GMT, as the unemployment data is due later on Wednesday, with European Central Bank officials make public appearances.