Auto industry executives believe electric vehicles will make up less than half of new vehicle sales in the United States and China by 2030, and could do so without government subsidies, according to a new survey by accounting and consulting firm KPMG.
According to the latest annual survey of 1,000 auto industry executives, it's expected that combustion vehicles, including hybrids, will retain a significant share of most major vehicle markets for years to come.
The global auto industry is affected by the speed at which automakers can phase out combustion engines and the carbon dioxide they emit. A group of automakers and countries signed a statement earlier this month calling for the end of combustion vehicles by 2040 at www.reuters. Com business cop six-major carmakers-agree phase-out fossil fuel vehicles by 2040 uk-says 2021 -- 11 -- 10 and by 2035 in richer nations.
The KPMG survey of auto industry executives found that they believe that electric vehicles will account for 52% of sales in the US, China and Japan by the year 2030, with lower percentages for Western Europe, Brazil and India. Industry executives have a lot of different views behind the aggregate forecasts.
Some auto industry executives believe that EV sales will be less than 20% of the market by 2030, while others believe that the world's largest market could be 80% electric by then.
The government subsidies have fueled electric vehicle sales around the world. 77% of the respondents said electric vehicles can achieve mass adoption within ten years without government aid, as battery costs drop to parity with petroleum-fueled engines. 91% of auto executives said they support government subsidies.
According to the survey, 75% of executives expect their companies to sell non-core assets in the coming years, as they re-evaluate what business lines will be viable as more new vehicles shift to battery-electric technology.
Gary Silberg, the global leader of KPMG's automotive practice, said there was going to be a lot of M&A.
Despite the supply-chain and pandemic disruptions of the past year, about 53% of the executives surveyed said they were confident that the industry can achieve profitable growth over the next five years.
The survey found that the most bullish executives were in the United States and China, while the most pessimistic were in France.