Exclusive: European Central Bank's inflation forecast to exceed 2%

Exclusive: European Central Bank's inflation forecast to exceed 2%

FRANKFURT Reuters - Politicians are bracing for inflation to exceed the bank's already raised estimates, paving the way for it to stop its emergency bond purchases in March, sources said.

The ECB, which plans to make a decision on the future of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program in December, expects inflation to ease back in 2022 - 23 following this year's abnormal bounce as the economy goes back to its pre-pandemic path.

But conversations with eight members of the ECB Governing Council who asked not to be named showed that many, if not most, at the Sept. 9 - 10 policy meeting already felt the new forecasts, which put inflation at 2.2% this year, 1.7% next year and 1.5% in 2023, were too low.

Since then data has strengthened their concerns that inflation could rise if inflation fails to meet the ECB 2% inflation target for next year, a potential headache since ECB policy is predicated on inflation undershooting the target for years to come.

The sources pointed to supply bottlenecks that were longer than anticipated, shortages of staff that had expanded beyond the hospitality sector and a steady stream of cash being poured into the economy from official savings and private stimulus programmes - including the ECB's own.

Most sources agreed that higher inflation added to an already strong case for ending PEPP, which is worth 175 trillion euros, as scheduled next March, although the debate was barely beginning.

Many were even open to a temporary increase in the volume of the Central Bank's other bond-buying scheme, the Asset Purchase Programme, so as to avoid a cliff effect from the end of PEPP.

Some said they could living with APP running at a higher pace, for example at 40 billion euros $47 billion per month versus 20 billion euros current of documents, provided it had a clear end-date on it.

Others, at the conservative end of the spectrum, saw even 40 billion as too much, given that government debt issuance is likely to drop sharply next year.

Many policymakers were also prepared to let the ECB deviate from its capital key when buying bonds - a potential victory for indebted governments such as Italy's that often come under pressure on the financial market, conversations with the sources suggested.

But there was widespread resistance to breaking the issuer limit - a cap on how many bonds from a single country that the Central Bank can own that has helped shield the central bank from accusations that it is financing governments in cases brought in European and German courts.

The issuer limit was on the verge of becoming binding in Germany and some smaller nations.

A spokesman for the ECB refused to comment on this story.

All sources said it was too early to draw any definitive conclusion about the outlook and its policy implications.

Policymakers were set to hold at least two seminars in the coming weeks, first about the ECB’s long-term loans to banks and, closer to the December meeting, about its asset purchases.

They said more evidence was needed to conclude that a longer inflation hump would translate into the sort of durable price rises the bank was targeting, especially since wage growth remained muted.

But they worried that the ECB's macroeconomic models, which predict the future based on the past, are skewed by years of slow price growth and underestimate how much world has changed since pandemic?

The ECB has said it expected supply chain bottlenecks to increase next year and the rebound in some commodity prices to drop off the temporary comparison, lowering inflation rate after a largely annual bounce.

Sceptics think it won't take much for it to stick and some expressed displeasure at the ECB president Philip Lane and chief economist Christine Lagarde's insistence on the temporary nature of the recent rise.

Can inflation recover from the rise in commodities? Large means not totally and you need a small portion of these transitory factors to stick around to fill the gap between our forecast and the target, one of the sources said.

Their inflation concern was highlighted by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which raised its own projections on Wednesday, forecasting price growth at or above its own 2% target for years to come.

Markets expect ECB to discontinue the PEPP in March, but continue buying bonds via its Asset Purchase Programme while ending its deposit rate at - 0.5% for another three years.