Ferrari's stock RACE may be more reliable than the Italian automaker's notoriously finicky supercars.
Shares of Ferrari were relatively unchanged on Wednesday, but the stock has dropped nearly 27% year to date due to investors fearing a crash in stock andcryptocurrencies, which could affect sales at the supercar maker.
Jonas thinks the sell-off is overdone, pointing out the introduction of the Purosangue, Ferrari's first four-door SUV, as a catalyst in 2023.
Jonas was particularly bullish about the new Purosangue, which sports a V 12 gas-powered engine that churns out 715 horsepower.
We looked at the release of the Lamborghini Urus in 2018 to help investors understand the significance and market position of the Purosangue. Pre-Urus, Lamborghini sold 3,815 vehicles between the Aventador and Huracan models worldwide. Four years later in 2021, Lamborghini sold 8,405 vehicles of which 5,021 were the Urus. Non-Urus sales have declined since Urus's inception - 15.2%, while Urus sales are up 185% during the same period. We do not believe that Purosangue will be a size-able niche model within the Ferrari line-up as a result of Jonas qualified. Ferrari has stated that Purosangue sales will contribute less than 20% of its shipments over its lifetime. We would take the under 15% of total Ferrari sales at this stage, not due to demand but more to supply. The analyst believes that Purosangue will lend itself to an even higher performance and higher margin Ferrari vehicle, as a valuable proof-of- concept when assessing demand for ultra luxury SUVs that Ferrari can further develop in full-electric BEV battery electric vehicle form later in the decade.
Jonas' estimates on the possible financial impact of the Purosangue:
We assume starting MSRP to be €390 K and add a 13 to 15% personalization premium and a 10% gross margin at dealer level, Jonas wrote. Ferrari is expected to start shipping the Purosangue in 1 Q 23, where we ramp up production to 11% of the total Ferrari unit volume by 4 Q 23. The total company ASP for the full year 2023 was 337 K above the 327 K we estimate for 6.8% of units shipped to the Purosangue during the year 2023, according to the analyst. Our updated model is 120 basis points accretive to 2323 EBITDA margins and 80 basis points to 2024 EBITDA margins. The diluted EPS forecast goes up 7% for FY 23 to €5.95, a 9% increase for FY 24 €6.82 and nearly 10% for FY 25 €7.49 The analyst noted Ferrari's growth potential and strong execution, with shipments of 13 k units in 2022, growing at a 7.3% compound annual growth rate to 2030, ending at 21.0 k shipments.
Jonas said that the EBITDA margins are 35% in 2022 on strong product mix and pricing. You can follow Sozzi on Twitter and LinkedIn.