German election: Here are some of the most likely coalition partners

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German election: Here are some of the most likely coalition partners

Election posters of Germany's top candidates for chancellor Olaf Scholz, the co-leader of the Green Party, and Annalena Baerbock, North Rhine-Westphalia's State Premier and Christian Democratic Union CDU leader, are pictured in Berlin, Germany, September 16, 2021. Sept 23 Reuters - Germany faces months of stiff negotiations to form a coalition government after the federal election on Sunday, with three parties set to need to team up to clear the threshold of 50% of all seats in the Bundestag after the vote.

Here is a summary of some likely coalitions and some compromises that will be necessary to reach agreement.

If Olaf Scholz's Center-left Social Democrats come third to the Greens, getting first in polls would be his obvious choice for a coalition partner. The parties are generally hawkish on Russia policy and on raising taxes and social spending, though the Greens are strongly against Environment Policy in Russia.

The SPD must reclaim the chancellery for the first time since 2005, however, to get the liberal Free Democrats on board to form a traffic light coalition, so-called due to the party colors red, green and yellow.

FDP President Christian Lindner has talked cool on this possibility, saying legalizing cannabis is about the only thing his party could easily agree with the SPD and Greens.

While liberals are far to the right of the SPD and Greens in economics, they might compromise if it meant keeping the far-left linke, loathed by many voters, out of office and if it means they won control of the Finance Ministry.

Probability: 45% according to Eurasia group according to Probability and Number:.

Armin Laschet's Christian Democrats would rather team up with the FDP. Christian liberal governments allied politics with Germany for much of the post-war era, and the two are closely allied in economic policy.

But the two parties will not have enough seats to govern alone. They could ask the Greens to form a Jamaica coalition - the colours of black, green and yellow make up the flag of this country.

However, such an alliance will also not be easy: Liberal leader Christian Lindner unexpectedly pulled out of talks on formation of a Jamaica coalition in 2017.

On defense, the Greens and FDP are distant while both the conservatives and the liberals are considerably more hawkish.

Probability: 30% according to the Eurasia group.

The SPD has been a reluctant junior partner to Merkel's conservatives for 12 of the past 16 years. They say they will never agree but have ruled out working together again since the 2017 election and ended up agreeing when other options failed.

Probability: 10% according to the Eurasia group.

If the SPD and Greens fail to team up with the FDP, the Conservatives raised the spectre of a red-red coalition with the hard-left Linke party, heirs to the Communist Party that ruled East Germany. The SPD and Greens have likewise ruled out working with any party refusing to commit to the NATO military alliance or Germany's Union membership, both of which the Linke has called into question.

The Linke could fall below the 5% threshold required to enter parliament, but will still win three constituencies directly, meaning it would still contribute enough seats to a left-wing coalition to reach a majority.

Probability: 5% according to Eurasia group.