- Hurricane Ida grows in size and power as it moves to New Orleans along the Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana, and Louisiana is bracing for disaster - clearing out hospital wards, shutting down oil refineries and forcing residents of low-lying neighborhoods to flee.
Ida slammed into Cuba Friday night as it barreled north toward the U.S Gulf Coast with winds expected to reach 140 miles per hour and a wall of water that could reach 15 feet in height. The hurricane was around 440 miles south-southeast of New Orleans Saturday with winds of 85 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory for 7 a.m. local time. It is expected to make landfall Sunday night or early Monday morning.
The city of New Orleans is asking residents to evacuate as soon as possible or prepare to shelter in place Friday night, according to a text alert sent late Friday evening. The storm could damage up to 1 million homes along the coast if it intensifies as predicted, with potential reconstruction costs estimated to exceed $220 billion, according to CoreLogic.
Hurricane Ida may Damage Almost 1 Million Homes on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
With winds strong enough to knock out dwellings and destroy power for weeks or longer, areas that suffer a direct hit could be 'uninhabitable" for weeks or months according to the hurricane center.
There's little in Ida's way to stop it from ramping up to the second-most destructive category of a hurricane, given the deep eddy of 86 degrees Fahrenheit seawater that it will traverse before it roars ashore late Sunday or early Monday, said Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at commercial forecaster Atmospheric G 2. Warm water is like fuel for tropical cyclones.
In an unfortunate case of very bad luck, the expected track of Ida will take it directly over an ordinary pool of water in the Northern Gulf on Sunday, which is the primary reason for rapid intensification, Crawford said. If Ida starts building with a Category 5 state at some point in the coming week, it is not out of the question that this state will touch Sunday.
Ida made landfall near Pinar Del Rio in the Puerto Rico province of Cuba shortly before 7 p.m. local time with winds of 80 mph. Oil and gas prices increased as energy companies evacuated facilities and shuttered workers. Louisiana Children's Medical Center is sending some patients home and will put six New Orleans-area hospitals on lockdown Sunday morning. On its current trajectory, the storm could cause between $30 billion to $10 billion in damage and losses, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research.
Watson said that 'Little wobbles matter a lot. If it goes just east of New Orleans, it risks pumping water into Pontchartain and overtopping the levees and all bets are off.
As of 7 a.m. local time, 153 flights to and from New Orleans were scrubbed for Sunday and Monday, according to FlightAware, an airline tracking software.
'All preparations for this dangerous event have to be made today, Jack Beven, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, wrote in his forecast. 'Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana.
A hurricane warning was posted for the entire state of Florida, including New Orleans, the center said. Ida could push a surge of ocean water 10 to 15 feet above normal from Mobile Bay to the mouth of the Mississippi River and lesser amounts all the way to Morgan City.
Some levees outside of Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System could be overtopped by flooding waters. About half of all the hurricane deaths are due to flooding.
Joe Biden declared a state of emergency in Louisiana. New Orleans, often referred to as NOLA, is below sea level and depends on levees and pumps to keep the ocean and river out.
"NOLA is always a place that things can go wrong quickly and badly," said Enki Research's Watson.
Even if the levee system holds and keeps the surge at bay, New Orleans could face a major flood risk from the rain alone, said Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger LCC. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has deployed about 2,500 people to Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi and Texas states including Louisiana. Urban Search and Rescue teams are being added to Louisiana, it said, with other teams on alert.
Oil explorers anticipate the storm and have already halted the equivalent of more than 1.2 million barrels of daily crude production. Royal Dutch Shell plc, BP Plc and others are evacuating platforms and closing businesses.
The Gulf is home to 16% of U.S. crude production, 2% of its natural gas output and 48% of the nation's refining capacity. After Ida comes ashore, it could also flood cotton, corn, soybean and sugarcane crops, said Don Keeney, a meteorologist with commercial forecaster Maxar.