Johnson’s chances of surviving publication of illicit party photos

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Johnson’s chances of surviving publication of illicit party photos

There are five possible scenarios and a one to five risk rating for the PM.

The best outcome for Johnson s chances would be that Gray repeats the same general criticisms of the No 10 culture seen in her interim report, with blame largely on officials, and that if there are any photos, they are the same ones already published by ITV News from the 13 November 2020 gathering. Tory MPs might tut, but they would mainly shrug.

Gray is not expected to publish many, if any actual photographs of illicit parties, because the report won't identify any junior officials. It would be awkward for Johnson if one not yet seen was included, along with corroborating details, for example, described by some people who attended that Johnson instigated the 13 November leaving drinks for his then head of communications, Lee Cain, poured drinks and made a speech.

There was a lot of focus on the 13 November gathering and the birthday party for Johnson in June 2020, for which he was fined. But if other events are brought to the forefront, for example an alleged party in Johnson's Downing Street flat on the same night that Cain left, Tory MPs could become twitchy. Gray is an optimistic note for Johnson, who is expected to focus more on process and generalities than specifics.

This is where it gets really tricky for the PM. The interim report did not blame Johnson personally, speaking only in general terms about leadership failures inside No 10. Gray's full report could set out, whether explicitly or by inference, the idea that as prime minister he could and should have done to stop the party culture that existed inside No 10 during the lock-in. An official narrative portraying Johnson as complicit in the lawbreaking or at best an ineffectual bystander would not be good news for Tory MPs. Along with the photos we have seen, his supporters would find it hard to hold the line The biggest threat to Johnson is the idea that he deliberately misled Parliament when he said no rules were broken in No 10. This was his sincere belief at the time, and his intent to deceive is hard to prove. A potential smoking gun that could prove his undoing would be an email, text, WhatsApp or other document showing the PM realised at the time that one or more events were primarily social and therefore illicit. There has not been a hint of a rumour about any such thing linked directly to Johnson, so it seems unlikely that it is. It is one of the few revelations that could see him ousted by the MPs who have so far held their noses.