The presidential election, meant to help unify the nation after a decade of civil war, is scheduled to take place in just over a week, but calls are mounting for a delay.
Either scenario — holding the vote on time or postponing it — could turn into a destabilizing setback.
The vote on December 24 will be for Libya's first president since the ouster and killing of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi more than a decade ago.
For nearly a year the election has been the lynchpin of international efforts to bring peace to the oil-rich North African nation, and supporters fear a dangerous void if it is not held on schedule.
Critics warn that going ahead with the vote could cause the country to go into new violence. They say that Libya remains too bitterly divided among armed factions that are likely to reject any victory by rivals in the election. The presence of some of Libya's most polarizing figures in the race — including one of Gadhafi's sons — makes it more explosive.
Nearly 100 people have announced their candidacies, but the election commission hasn't announced a final list of candidates because of legal disputes. It should have announced the list earlier this month. The rules governing the election are in dispute with western Libya politicians accusing the east-based parliament of adopting them without consultations.
Libya plunged into chaos after Gadhafi died during a 2011 uprising backed by a U.S. military campaign. Control was splintered among a myriad of armed militias. For years, the country was split between rival administrations in the east and west, each backed by militias and foreign governments.
The current political process was created last year after the latest round of brutal fighting.
In April 2019, eastern military commander Khalifa Hifter launched an offensive that aimed at capturing the capital, Tripoli, and bringing down the U.N. recognized government based there. Hifter was supported by Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey and Qatar responded by stepping up support for pro-Tripoli militias, providing them with advanced weapons and providing troops and Syrian mercenaries.
After 14 months of fighting, Hifter's offensive collapsed. After a U.N.-broked cease-fire in October 2020, a group of Libyan factions called the Political Forum drew up a road map that led to the creation of an interim government to run the country until the December 24 election.
The mistrust between east and west remains too deep and volatile, according to those calling for a delay in the election. One U.N. official said the interim government has not been able to unify Libya's institutions, particularly the military, dismantle militias or ensure the exit of foreign mercenaries and fighters.
Before going to elections, these issues should have been settled. They need more time and effort to be resolved, he said, because he was not authorized to talk to the press.
Without unified military forces, the election poses a threat to peace, said Tarek Mitri, a former UN envoy for Libya. How can I win the argument in a democratic election when guns are loaded to the hilt on both sides? He said something.
In a last-minute effort to save the elections, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres named American diplomat Stephanie Williams, who led the talks that resulted in the cease-fire deal in October 2020, as his special adviser to Libya.
Williams met with Libyan officials in Tripoli on Sunday. She called for all sides to respect the overwhelming demand of the Libyan people to elect their representatives through a free, fair and credible election. She did not mention the Dec. 24 dateline in her public comments.
The United States and some other people in the international community want the vote to go ahead. As he stepped down on December 8, the outgoing U.N. envoy Jan Kubis said the election must take place on schedule, calling it an important step that opens doors to future solutions. After Hifter and Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, the son and heir apparent of the longtime dictator, announced their candidacies, the polarization around the election grew even more heated.
Hifter, touted as a hero in the east, is hated by many in the west of the country.
The entire Western region will fight Hifter he will never rule Libya, said Khalid al-Mishri, head of the Tripoli-based Supreme Council of State, in televised comments last month.
Seif al-Islam s bid raised cries of an attempted return to the days of his father.
Abdel-Rahman el-Swahili, a lawmaker from Misrata, said he was one of the leading forces in the rebellion against the elder Gadhafi and believe in the possibility of Libya returning to the era of dictatorship.
The prime minister of the interim government, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, caused an uproar when he announced his bid to enter the race. When he took over his post, he had vowed not to run in the election.
Ramadan al-Zawi, a 29-year-old teacher, said all the factions say they want elections, but in fact they all worked against it. We are deceiving ourselves when we talk about elections despite the fact that we are still in an unchanged situation since 2011.