We have a technical recession already, and that means that we have a technical recession. Negative growth is unavoidable in the third quarter. When third quarter results are published at the end of October, we will be able to officially announce a recession, Mauricas said on Monday in an interview on the radio ini Radijas.
The economist believes that the annual result would still be positive despite the negative GDP growth two quarters in a row.
The first half of the year was very good, and the growth should be between 1% and 1.8%. In the first quarter, annual growth exceeded 4%, in the second quarter it was 2.8%, said Mauricas.
According to him, the annual negative GDP growth is only possible if Lithuania's economy experiences a significant decline.
He says this time the economy does not face the same financial crisis scenario as in 2008 because of one of the biggest GDP slumps in history.
According to the expert, Lithuania is capable of withstanding an economic downturn as its economy is more diversified now, whereas residents, companies and even public institutions are not much indebted compared to the European and global average.
Mauricas predicted that Lithuania's economy would decline at a similar rate to the EU average or slightly more due to Russia's factor.