The new year has still solid demand for labor, despite the fact that new weekly jobless claims likely held below pre-pandemic levels last week.
The Labor Department will release its latest weekly jobless claims report on Thursday at 8: 30 a.m. Here are the main metrics expected from the print, based on consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
This week's jobless claims report will coincide with the December monthly jobs report from the Labor Department, giving an early indication of the relative strength expected in that print due for release in early January.
Initial unemployment claims are expected to come in below even pre-pandemic levels, with jobless claims having averaged around 220,000 per week throughout 2019. Earlier this month, first-time unemployment filings fell sharply to 188,000, or the lowest level since 1969. According to last week's report, the four-week moving average for new claims was also at its lowest in 52 years, dropping by 16,000 week-over-week to reach 203,750.
The continuing claims have also come down sharply from the Pandemic-era highs, despite being slightly above the 2019 average of about 1.7 million. The metric, which counts the total number of individuals claiming benefits through regular state programs, is expected to come in below 2 million for a fourth straight week and reach the lowest level since March 2020.
Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note that the claims indicate strong demand for workers and a reluctance by businesses to lay off workers. Omicron and Delta could be a problem if businesses have to close for health-related reasons. She said that the direction in the labor market recovery remains positive, with demand still strong. Labor shortages are preventing a stronger recovery, although these appeared to be easing somewhat in November. Policymakers have taken note of the improving labor market situation. Amid improving labor market conditions and strong demand for workers, the economy has been making rapid progress toward maximum employment, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at a press conference last week. At the end of the Federal Open Market Committee's latest policy-setting meeting, officials decided to speed up their rate of asset-purchase tapering, paring back some crisis-era support in the economy as the recovery progressed.
Many Americans have also cited solid labor market conditions, especially as job openings hold at historically high levels. In the latest Consumer Confidence report for December, 55.1% of consumers said that jobs were plentiful. This rate was down slightly from November's 55.5%, but it still represented a historically strong reading, according to the Conference Board.
On Thursday, the deadline was set to be ET. Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.