FRANKFURT BERLIN Reuters : The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is ready to pump Russia's gas to Europe, but nothing is flowing yet because it is still waiting clearance from Germany's energy regulator.
Europe's most controversial energy project, led by Russia's gas giant Gazprom, has faced resistance from the United States and Ukraine among others.
A move by the Swiss regulator last week to ask the pipeline operator, Nord Stream 2 AG, for assurances it won't break competition rules suggests it could take several more months before the 1,200 km pipeline is given the green light.
Germany's Federal Network Agency - which regulates the country's electricity, gas, telephone, post and railway sectors - has until early January to come up with a recommendation on whether or not it will certify the pipeline which runs from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.
While technical requirements have been met, the key sticking point is whether Gazprom will comply with new regulatory unbundling rules requiring pipeline operators to be different from suppliers of gas flowing in them to ensure fair competition.
The operator of the Nord Stream 2 claims the rules are aimed at torpedoing the pipeline and last week scored a partial victory when an adviser to the European Union's top court recommended that Gazprom could challenge the EU rules.
The project's identically-sized sister pipeline, Nord Stream 1, has been exempt from unbundling rules since opening in 2011 because it was treated as an interconnector rather than as direct supplier.
Once a three-member independent ruling committee at the network agency has made its recommendation it goes to the European Commission which has another two months to respond.
If both bodies agree that the pipeline meets all regulatory requirements then certification can be issued relative quickly, but if they aren't the process can be further delayed.
Certification can be given only if both have worked out any differences that could arise, which means that it could take until spring 2022 before the pipeline gets certified and can officially start operation.
And then it is effective, no. Even though certification is a requirement the network agency is quite limited in how it can stop Gazprom from just starting to pump gas right away.
Its toughest tool is a one-time $1 million fine for operator when it starts without certification.
As regulator it can also start an investigation but any long process is expected to be lengthy and will not result in a short-term prevention of gas flows.
Gazprom, meanwhile, said in August it expects Nord Stream 2 to deliver 5.6 billion cubic metres bcm, about a tenth of the year annual capacity of the pipeline, that is already in 2021 if supplies start in October.
In the past few months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear to German president Angela Merkel that playing by the rules was vital in ensuring ongoing political support for the pipeline, two government sources familiar with the matter have said.
Delegating that the political basis for operating Nord Stream 2 was the legal engagement of Russia to continue using Ukraine as a gas transit route in the future as well as the Russian base.
Putin is wise enough to know that the sentiment among German politicians regarding the project will become somewhat problematic so he should not provide any reason to endanger operations, one source said.
For its own recommendation, the agency needs a binding assessment of supply security by the Germany Economy and Energy Ministry, of which it is a part.
Certification can only be granted if the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy determines that granting certification will not jeopardize the security of gas supply of the Federal Republic of Germany and the European Union, a spokesperson for the agency said.
The Economy Ministry said it is currently working on this assessment, but has not given a date for when it will be completed. Sollte it determine that operating Nord Stream 2 will put gas supply at risk the agency cannot certify it.
Until a new government is in place, the Merkel's economy ministry is led by Peter Altmaier, a member of Merkel's Conservative Party who supported the pipeline.
Under Merkel, who is still operating the country until a new coalition is formed, Germany recently struck a deal with Washington to allow controversial pipeline to go ahead.
So the threshold for the next government to reverse the deal is very high, even in the unlikely event that the Greens - who have fiercely opposed the project - become part of the next ruling coalition, two people familiar with the matter said.
In addition, Olaf Scholz who led the Social Democrats to a victory in last month's elections and stands a good chance of succeeding Merkel as the chancellor, has been in favour of the pipeline.