This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. The EU S state that Northern Ireland is in a good position by being part of the EU single market and the United Kingdom's single market has been shown to be false, Mr Monteith has claimed. He told Express.co. he was responding to a report by the University of Strathclyde. The United Kingdom is now in the worst of both worlds The first detailed economic modelling of the impact of the NI Protocol on Northern Ireland's economy has been published by the University of Strathclyde s Fraser of Allander Institute, a body that previously favoured the UK s membership of the EU. According to the report, Northern Ireland's economy is set to suffer in terms of GDP, jobs and trade with the rest of the United Kingdom.
The Fraser of Allander report from Strathclyde University estimates that Northern Ireland's GDP will fall by 2.6 percent, NI exports to GB will fall by 6.1 percent and its exports to the rest of the world will drop by 8.6 percent. The report states that NI employment will be 1.25 percent lower, real wages will fall by 3.9 percent and overall consumption will fall by 2.5 percent, all before the Protocol was introduced. Brian Monteith told Express.co. This first economic modelling of the impact of the Northern Ireland Protocol on the Province s trade patterns shows real harm is being done to internal NI-GB trade and there are no grounds to suggest that Northern Ireland enjoys the best of both worlds as suggested by the EU and in the past by Michael Gove. The EU Commission and Mr Gove have made the best of both worlds claim as a result of Northern Ireland being part of the UK but inside the EU's customs union and single market.
All of this comes against the expectations over a nominal 15 year period compared to the period before the Protocol was introduced. According to the trade position, the Institute estimates that imports to NI businesses from the rest of the UK fell by 5.9 percent, while imports from the ROW increase by 0.5 percent. Monteith said there were no economic facts to inform the debate about the Northern Ireland Protocol. Despite the deafening political noises and claim and counter-claim, all actors are blindly relying on readings taken in the Republic of Ireland. These cannot capture the necessary data to confirm the Protocol's impact on where it is being applied in Northern Ireland. Rishi Sunak urged to act as the EU to unleash the banking revolution.
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He said that the Fraser of Allander Institute report which examines the impact of the Protocol's non-tariff barriers is a way to inform the debate about what is happening on the ground. The Institute maintains that the best outcome for Northern Ireland would have been for the UK to remain in the European Union, despite the fact that it blows out of the water the notion of Northern Ireland is enjoying the best of both worlds. Monteith dismisses this and says that the findings of an economic institution that has repeatedly favoured remaining in the EU backs up the positions of the UK Government, opponents of the Protocol, and those who are still waiting for a real Brexit. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research AgencyIreland Statistics and Research Agency NISRA has yet to publish its findings on the full trading picture of Northern Ireland in the context of its relationship with the rest of the UK, the Republic of Ireland, and the rest of the world.
The latest statistics were from 2018 when Theresa May was Prime Minister. The NISRA comes in for a lot of criticism from Mr Monteith. He said that the lack of hard data is a failure of the Northern Ireland OfficeIreland Office and needs to be rectified as a matter of urgency. The Republic of Ireland's statistics for imports and exports of goods are as recent as September 2021 by comparison. Northern Ireland currently operates under a temporary grace period before the full impact of EU regulations is applied. Mr Monteith said that it can only get worse when the relaxations are no longer extended and the real impact of the NI Protocol are felt.