The negotiations to resurrect the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers are moving towards a state of limbo, meaning the outcome of the new round of talks in Vienna could leave the accord neither quite alive nor categorically dead.
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Diplomats reconvene Monday in the Austrian capital for an eighth round of negotiations meant to limit the Persian Gulf country's nuclear activities in exchange for U.S. sanctions.
The deep divisions that plague the European Union-brokered talks continue to cause diplomats to contemplate outcomes that are not fully reviving the landmark 2015 accord, according to officials with knowledge of the discussions.
While there is no formal discussion of an interim deal, leaving the accord in a state of limbo would require an implicit understanding among all sides not to escalate further. Iran took a big step in that direction when it said it wouldn't surpass 60% enrichment on December 25.
In the absence of a formal U.S. return, it will be up to the European parties to decide whether to escalate or keep talks on life support until a new opportunity presents itself.
The most important issue for us is to reach a point where Iran can sell its oil without any restrictions and receive its money in foreign currency in its own bank accounts, according to the semi-official ISNA news agency. We should be able to fully reap the economic benefits of the nuclear deal. European and U.S. diplomats are increasingly skeptical that they can offer the kind of sanctions that Iran demands. The Islamic Republic has increased its nuclear activities after the U.S. unilaterally left the accord almost four years ago.
That resulted in a dwindling time horizon for diplomacy to prevent Iran from marshaling resources necessary to build a nuclear weapon.
Following the last diplomatic round that adjourned December 17, a European official who asked not to be identified in exchange for discussing the talks said the window of opportunity had shrunk to a matter of weeks.
A senior State Department official said time was running out to revive the accord. Some of Iran's primary advocates in the talks, including China and Russia, suggest that the newest round might just have a month to succeed.
Iran has no intention of building warheads but concerns that it might try to develop nuclear weapons drove the international diplomatic effort that culminated in the 2015 accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The talks have been closely watched for signs that the holder of the world's No. Two Iranian envoys familiar with the talks who asked not to be identified in line with diplomatic rules rejected European and U.S. ultimatums limiting the time for diplomacy. While one official said Iran is ready to negotiate as long as necessary to reach a deal, the other suggested that the Gulf nation is looking at fall-back options in case of the Vienna talks collapse.
One option could be recasting the format of negotiations with Iran leaning more on Russian diplomats or envoys from the United Arab Emirates to carry messages to forestall escalation that has threatened to tip into armed conflict, said the latter.
Former U.S. intelligence officials wrote this month that the Biden administration should threaten to attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure unless it acquiesces. Israel has suggested that it could bomb Iranian positions to prevent the country from making nuclear weapons.
Tehran s top nuclear official, Mohammad Eslami, signaled in a Dec. 25 interview with Russia s RIA Novosti that his engineers won't exceed levels of uranium enrichment required to make a nuclear weapon. That could send a message to diplomats trying to extend the possibility for a peaceful resolution.
According to Tariq Rauf, the former non-proliferation policy chief at the International Atomic Energy Agency, there needs to be an understanding that Iran won't increase their enrichment even further. The Gulf states don't want an attack on Iran because they know they will suffer as well. A military conflict in Iran wouldn't be cost-free for the region. While leaving the JCPOA in limbo might prevent immediate escalation, it is unlikely to stop pressure from mounting in the long term. European negotiators will eventually face louder calls to send Iran back to the UN Security Council for sanctions rather than to allow a zombie accord to limp along. Tehran has warned that it may leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether.
If Iran's nuclear advances continue apace, a point will come in the next two to three months when it becomes necessary to up the ante on coercive diplomacy, said Ali Vaez, who oversees Iran analysis at the International Crisis Group. Domestic politics in the U.S. will need a strong reaction. Since America has maxed out its leverage, the Europeans will have to do most of the heavy lifting. None How Shopify Outfoxed Amazon to become the Everywhere Store?
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