The increase in oil output in November has undershot the rise planned under a deal with allies, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, bringing a lack of capacity in some producers into focus ahead of a policy meeting this week.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC pumped 27.74 million barrels per day bpd in November, but it was less than the 254,000 increase allowed under the supply deal, according to the survey.
A group known as OPEC is slowly relaxing 2020's output cuts as demand recovers from the pandemic. Many smaller producers can't raise supply, and others are wary of pumping too much in case of renewed COVID 19 setbacks.
The OPEC meets on Thursday. A U.S.-led release of oil stocks by consumer nations in January to lower prices and the appearance of the Omicron coronavirus variant has cast doubt whether a 400,000 barrel per day output boost will go ahead, analysts say.
Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank said that pressure is growing on the OPEC. In January, increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day was virtually unimaginable, given the latest market developments, he said.
The drop in oil prices to $71 by Tuesday -- from a three-year high above $86 a barrel in October - has caused unease, OPEC delegates say, although Saudi energy minister said on Monday he was not worried about Omicron.
The OPEC agreement allowed for a 400,000 barrel per day production increase in November from all members, of which around 253,000 barrels per day are shared by the 10 OPEC members covered by the deal, according to figures seen by Reuters.
By reallocating output targets on Thursday, OPEC will not be expected to address the underperformance of some producers.
The biggest rise in November came from OPEC's top two producers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which both boosted output as promised, according to the agreement.
The United Arab Emirates, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria also made increases as indicated by their higher November quotas. Nigerian output, often hit by unplanned outages, recovered in November as a force majeure was lifted.
The survey found that output fell in Angola, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, due to a lack of capacity to produce more.
The biggest decline - 50,000 barrels per day - was in Angola, where exports hit a record low during the month, according to tanker schedules. The second largest country was Libya, one of the countries exempt from OPEC supply curbs due to pipeline maintenance.
Output in Iran, which has increased exports since the fourth quarter despite U.S. sanctions, was steady in November. Talks to revive its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, which would allow a larger export recovery, resumed this week.
The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market, and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from tanker tracking companies such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler, as well as information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.