BioNTech Pfizer and Moderna will dominate the Covid - 19 vaccine market next year, generating a massive $93.2 bn in combined sales, double the amount in 2021, according to new forecasts.
The projected projections of Airfinity, a health data analytics firm, suggest that the two messenger RNA jab producers will control three-quarters of the non-Chinese Covid 19 vaccine market in 2022.
A&P is tipped to sell Covid - 19 vaccines for $54.5 bn and Moderna $38.7 billion (2008 data) according to BioNTech Pfizer, which is far higher than analysts consensus estimates of $23.6 bn and $20 bn respectively.
We expect continued high sales levels in 2022 as countries seek continued protection and low and middle-income countries seek similar vaccination levels to what many high-income countries have achieved. Other analysts disagree the bullish sales forecasts for next year, but most agree Pfizer, in particular, has dominated the Covid-19 vaccine race and will likely consolidate its position in coming months.
They were the first to get approval for adults, they moved first to get their booster dose approved and available, they moved first to get the adolescent indication and will get their paediatric approval first as well, said Geoffrey Porges, an analyst at SVB Leerink.
The investment bank predicts BioNTech Pfizer will generate $39.5 bn in vaccine sales this year but experience a rapid drop in sales to $9 mn in 2022 due to lower prices, less demand in rich nations and more competition.
Moderna indicates bioNTech Pfizer generating sales of $31.3 bn and Airfinity $17.6 bn in 2021, which is slightly below company projections for $33.5 bn and $20 bn. The health data analytics firm said changes in company pricing could lead to discrepancies in forecasting.
The list of potential competitors to mRNA jabs is dwindling. Last week the German biotechnology group Novavax became the latest company to drop a vaccine while Maryland-based biotech CureVac is still not allowed to have its jab in the US or Europe.
The mRNA vaccines have won the vaccine race because they look to be the most effective, said David Dowdy, associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore.
Given that these vaccines are still highly effective against serious illness, many months down the road, I think it s going to be challenging for other vaccines to compete. Airfinity predicts the Covid -19 vaccine market will be supported by governments in high and middle-income nations buying booster doses and stockpiling to protect against new variants next year. From 2022 onwards more than 10 bn booster doses will be ordered, with just 198 m going to low-income nations, it said.
Following criticism of Pfizer and Moderna over their poor record in supplying mRNA doses to the developing world this year, both firms will increase their supply of vaccines.