Piper Sandler chief investment strategist warns economic growth, unemployment rates will become new crisis

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Piper Sandler chief investment strategist warns economic growth, unemployment rates will become new crisis

According to an interview on Mornings with Maria, Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz gave expert analysis of the U.S. markets and economy, warning investors that economic growth and unemployment rates will soon become our new crisis.

MICHAEL KANTROWITZ: I don't think we're in a recession. I know that Q 1 was a really ugly GDP report, but the details matter and that was a big hit to trade. Consumer spending was strong in Q 1 when you look at private domestic GDP. We're heading in that direction. You can look at the leading indicators of the economy, the Empire Fed IndexFed Index, the Philly Fed IndexFed Index, the Dallas PMI, the Kansas City PMI, and they are all in negative territory for the first time in this slowdown. When you start to see unemployment claims go up, everything is pointing in the right direction. As that broadens out, and we're just beginning to see layoffs from mostly tech companies, then that's a sign of the recession.

We're going to have a lot of volatility. The debate around inflation is not going to end this year. We're going to see a peak in CPI and a decline. It's not going to be fast enough to make the Fed pivot. I think it's more likely that the Fed will pausing because we have a job market problem next year. The Fed just thinks everything is fine when inflation goes away.