Putin’s plan to annex parts of Ukraine

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Putin’s plan to annex parts of Ukraine

The aim is to declare parts of Ukraine as Russian territory and then assert that the Ukrainian army is attacking Russia, not the other way around. Annexation would provide a pretext for drafting Ukrainian men in occupied areas and forcing them to fight other Ukrainians.

The Russian army has lost ground, controlling only portions of the four provinces. If Russia follows the template laid down in Ukraine to annex the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, the Kremlin will present local leaders as independent actors. A carefully choreographed multi-step process ensued in that instance.

Putin could pause the process, possibly opening prospects for negotiations with the threat of annexation clearly on the table. If he does not, a next step would be to submit the appeals from Russian proxy leaders to both chambers of the Russian Parliament. There would be few surprises here: Both houses consist of members loyal to Mr. Putin.

Two of the four provinces that held shows of voting in referendums to join Russia Donetsk and Luhansk Moscow established client states eight years ago have held shows of voting in recent days. The leaders of these entities set out for Moscow on Wednesday and said they would speak directly with Mr. Putin, setting in motion the process of annexation.

In two others, the puppet leaders of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson declared independence from Ukraine on Wednesday, a necessary formality as, under Russia's 1993 constitution, Moscow can not annex areas of a neighboring country without the consent of the country.