KYIV, December 3, Reuters - Russia has massed more than 94,000 troops near Ukraine's borders, and may be gearing up for a large military offensive at the end of January, Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov told parliament on Friday.
Reznikov said Ukraine would not do anything to provoke the situation but was ready to fight back if Russia launched an attack.
Ukraine and its NATO allies have sounded the alarm about Russian troop movements near Ukraine's borders this year, sparking fears that a simmering conflict in eastern Ukraine could erupt into a war.
The intelligence analyzes all scenarios, including the worst, according to Reznikov. It notes that Russia has a good chance of a large-scale escalation. The end of January is the most likely time to reach readiness for an escalation. Ukraine has pressed its European Union and NATO allies this week to prepare a tough package of sanctions to ward off Russia from launching an offensive.
Moscow has accused Ukraine and the United States of destabilising behaviour, and suggested that Kyiv may be preparing to launch its own offensive in eastern Ukraine, which Ukrainian authorities strongly deny.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Moscow of the severe costs Russia would pay in case of an escalation, and urged his Russian counterpart to seek a diplomatic exit from the crisis.
Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin are likely to speak soon, according to Blinken.
On Friday, the Kremlin said on Friday that work is under way to arrange a video call between them, a day after their top diplomats met to discuss the Ukraine crisis.
In 2014, Ukraine's ties with Russia collapsed after Moscow-backed forces seized territory in eastern Ukraine that Kyiv wants back. Some 14,000 people have been killed in fighting since then, according to Kyiv.
Since the latest crisis started, Moscow has set out demands for legally binding security guarantees from the West that NATO will not admit Ukraine as a member or deploy missile systems there to target Russia.
Ukraine believes that Russia has no say over its ambitions to join the NATO alliance and has dismissed any security guarantees as illegitimate.
Reznikov said that it is a possible scenario, but not unavoidable. Our task is to prevent it. We must make the price of escalation unacceptable for the aggressor.