Washington, January 7, ANI The US Defence Department's report shows that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal rapidly. The report has sparked a debate and has raised concerns for the US. Satellite photographs taken in 2021 also indicated that Beijing was expanding its nuclear arsenal dramatically, according to The National Interest.
This is contrary to China's position on nuclear weapons. People's Liberation Army has tested a space-based nuclear delivery system in October, hinting that it is working on more weapons to counter the United States' limited-capacity missile defence systems.
China has always maintained that it has a smaller nuclear arsenal than Russia or the US. China calls it ''minimum deterrence' meaning it has just enough nuclear to ensure Beijing's retaliatory attack. The US-based think tank said that Beijing's No First Use policy professes that nuclear weapons would only be used in response to an enemy's nuclear first strike.
Is the current dramatic expansion of China's nuclear arsenal a pretence?
The think tank, compiled from two reports published in late 2021, offers a measured perspective on changes to China's nuclear forces - Military and Security Developments involving the People's Republic of China, released by the Department of Defense and Chinese nuclear forces in 2021 by Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen.
How many nuclear weapons do Chinese people have and how many do they want to have?
According to the Defense Department, China is estimated to have low 200 s nuclear warheads in 2020, a total that is expected to be doubled, while the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists puts the figure at 350.
A new normal has emerged, according to the Defense Department's projection for 2021.
The report states that the PRC could have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by the year 2027 due to the accelerating pace of the People's Republic of China's PRC nuclear expansion. The think tank said the PRC is likely to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030, exceeding the pace and size of the DoD projected in 2020.
The United States, for example, has 1,550 nuclear bombs on active duty and many more in reserve. The inventory of the People's Liberation Army PLA is estimated to be in the low hundreds.
Is Beijing more likely to employ nuclear weapons as a form of coercion, or more usable tactical nuclear weapons with lower yields?
Military and Security Developments involving the People's Republic of China, published by the Department of Defense and Chinese Nuclear Forces 2021, by Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen, are two reports worth reading on China's nuclear doctrine and capabilities. The assessments provide a balanced view of China's nuclear forces despite their differences in epistemological orientations.
How many nuclear weapons does China have, and how many do they want to have? The Defense Department estimated that China had low 200 s nuclear warheads in 2020, with the total expected to double, while the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists put the figure at 350.
A new normal has emerged, according to the Defense Department's projection for 2021.
The research shows that the PRC's nuclear growth may accelerate to the point where it has up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by the year 2027. The PRC is expected to have 1,000 warheads by the year 2030, much exceeding the pace and magnitude projected by the Pentagon in 2020. The US researchers spotted 300 missile silos under construction in various remote areas of China with the help of satellite imagery.
That includes 120 silos in Yumen, Gansu province, 110 silos near Hami in eastern Xinjiang province and 80 silos in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, a region in China, the think tank said.
The Bulletin warns that the US Defense Department's prediction seems to be based on Chinese silo building. The Bulletin warns that some silos may be empty, forcing the US nuclear strategists to waste counterforce missiles in a shell game tactic.
Another question is does China have a radioactive chemical element, plutonium, for nuclear missile buildup?
According to the Bulletin, the US-based think tank said that China stopped military plutonium production in the mid 1980s, but it has enough material on hand to double force size, but a tripling -- and certainly a quadrupling -- would probably require the production of additional material. These could produce enough material for 990 - 1,550 warheads, according to the Bulletin, which could surpass the intercontinental ballistic missile force of either Russia and the United States. Russia and the US maintain a Launch-on-Worry posture LoW with land-based nuclear missiles on high alert 24 hours a day. The missiles are ready to launch a counter-attack as soon as an incoming strike is detected.
The Defense Department report states that China is adopting a posture called 'early warning counter strike' which is similar to the U.S. and Russian LoW postures the think tank said.