Everyone is talking about stagflation but no one on Wall Street believes it s coming.
A sampling. UBS: We don t expect stagflation to become endemic. Citi: Stagflation is a metaphor for now Barclays, on the prospect of European stagflation: Talk of stagflation seems off the mark, as we expect HICP to drop below the ECB s target in the third quarter of 2022. Analysts at Goldman Sachs also don t think stagflation is coming. Strategists led by Lilia Peytavin looked at what happened in the 1970 s to offer portfolio strategy advice during stagflation. They said the U.S. economy was in stagflation from the fourth quarter of 1974 to the first quarter of 1982.
In the U.S. the inflation-adjusted return was 0%, though U.K. equities delivered an 8% return in part because U.K. stocks started to fall in 1973 Gold was by far the best asset to own, and equities outperformed bonds.
However, sector-wise there were mixed results. Real estate was the best-performing sector in the U.S. but there was a collapse in property prices in the U.K. as credit conditions tightened. The experience of the 1970 s illustrates that macro fundamentals often overcome micro environment: a similar rise in interest rates created a downturn in the U.K. property market while real estate was the best performing sector in the U.S. they said.
The rate cut announced Thursday was the 1,000th worldwide since the demise of Lehman Brothers, according to Bank of America. They said the rate cuts are indicative of a liquidity supernova that is set to end next year. If 2020 was a rate shock and 2021 an inflation shock, 2022 would be a growth shock, strategists led by Michael Hartnett said, which will be good for volatility and the U.S. dollar and bad for credit, stocks and tech.
Snap SNAP, shares fell and other companies reliant on internet advertising including Alphabet GOOGL, Facebook FB, and Twitter TWTR reeled after the company s fourth quarter revenue estimate fell short of estimates, in what the company blamed mostly on the impact of Apple s AAPL, new privacy settings but also global supply-chain woes denting the desire for corporate advertising.
Intel INTC shares slipped as the chip maker beat earnings estimates but forecast slowing margins as it invests in building capacity and new technology.
Digital World Acquisition Corp. DWAC, the special-purpose acquisition company planning to merge with former President Donald Trump s new media venture, surged above $70 in premarket trade from below $10 before the deal was announced.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has the last word before the next period ahead of the quiet open market committee meeting, with a speech at 11 a.m. Eastern on post-COVID policy changes.
Joe Biden appears to have conceded that he doesn t have the votes to increase corporate taxes. The U.S. Treasury is due to show how much red ink the country spilled in the September-ending fiscal year; the Congressional Budget Office, which usually gets it close, said the federal deficit was $2.77 trillion, down from the $3.13 trillion deficit in fiscal 2020.
The Nasdaq - 100 contract NQ 00, saw particular pressure on worries over internet advertising, though the S&P ES 00 contract was steady.
Gold GC 00, was trading below $1,800 an ounce as the yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD 10 Y rose to 1.68%.
The actor Alec Baldwin killed the cinematographer of the Western movie he was producing after discharging a prop firearm, authorities say.
So many elephants were killed for their ivory that a large number of elephants have evolved to be naturally tuskless.
The emailed version will be sent out at about 7: 30 a.m. Eastern.