Sterling up slightly after tax cut reversal

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Sterling up slightly after tax cut reversal

LONDON: Britain's debt-fuelled economy is threatened by a recession and the pound is mired by problems despite the government of new prime minister Liz Truss making a swift tax U-turn.

The pound was up slightly on Monday October 3 after having recovered from a record low against the US dollar that followed the budget that was seen as benefitting the richest in Britain during a cost-a-living crisis.

London's benchmark FTSE 100 index was down about half a per cent, mirroring losses on global equity markets.

Following the debt-fuelled budget last month, the UK gilts, or government bonds, are supported by an emergency Bank of England intervention.

The pound has a bit more room to recover because of the tax cut reversal, but I don't expect the recovery to go on for too long, according to Chris Beauchamp, IG Index analyst.

Gilts should remain under pressure until we get a bigger reversal and more clarity on the fiscal outlook. In a dramatic change of plan, Britain's finance minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, said on Twitter that he would no longer be scrapping the 45 per cent income tax levied on the highest earners.

The chancellor of the exchequer said we understand it, and we have listened.

There are no other changes to the budget, including a cap on bankers' bonuses, a reversing of a planned rise in company profits and cutting taxes for all workers.

The intention to pay for cuts with billions more pounds in extra borrowing had a week ago sent sterling to a new all-time low against the dollar and put pension funds at risk because of the soaring bond yields.

Neil Wilson said at Markets.com that the tax cut reversal does not do much to boost the credibility of the government in the eyes of the market, though it does show that they are paying attention.

Whilst the U-turn produced a short burst of buying, sterling had recovered pretty well last week - a tougher line from the Bank of England in terms of rate hikes and its intervention to shore up the gilt market. Wilson said sentiment remains pretty weak and there could be another lurch lower for the pound while the BoE's intervention to buy gilts worth up to 65 billion dollars ends next week.

The Bank of England has to raise its main interest rate even more aggressively than planned because analysts believe that the budget could fuel already sky-high UK inflation.

Financial benefits for households affected by a cap on energy bills in the UK have been offset by the rise in mortgage deals, which are based on the BoE interest rate.

Ratings agencies have expressed concern, with S&P revising its outlook for the UK from stable to negative after the markets fallout.

Moody's had already warned that Kwarteng's fiscal strategy was credit negative and could weaken the UK's debt affordability. On a positive note, Britain is not yet in recession, revised official data shows Friday but that could change in the coming months.

There is a cliff edge in a couple of weeks when the Bank of England's emergency bond-buying programme comes to an end, said Philip Dragoumis, head of Thera Wealth Management.