Why will the warming in the sky be below 2 degrees Celsius?
With 1.5 degrees more action unlikely without more action now.
Climate talks will be a priority for policy change at COP 26 in April.
LONDON, Oct 18 Reuters - Government policy changes dealing with global warming could result in zero emission vehicles comprising around 30% of all vehicles on the road by 2030 and wind and solar providing 30% of global power generation, triple current levels a policy report forecast on Monday.
Rapid changes in food and land use systems would also play a critical role with peak meat consumption around 2030 helping the planet absorb more carbon within 30 years, said the report by the U.N.-backed Principles for Responsible Investment, a leading sustainable investment body.
Under its Forecast Policy Scenario projected as most likely, the report predicted dramatic and sweeping changes in policy from now until 2025 across the energy, transport, industry and food sectors.
From a policy perspective, such a policy acceleration would make it possible to keep the global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by mid-century, it said.
However, the global target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to no more than 1.5 degrees C would be out of reach without more rapid action, said the report, issued ahead of the COP 26 global climate talks in Glasgow next month.
Drawing on insights from more than 200 global policy experts, the report in the PRI's climate forecasting group, the Inevitable Policy Response, analyses the likely direction of travel in the coming years to inform investment practices of investors with $120 trillion in assets.
Strategic partners involved in the IPR include BlackRock Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Nuveen.
BlackRock considers climate risk investment risk and assessing climate risk on the path to net zero requires credible scenarios that not only outline what is possible but what is likely, said Ashley Schulten, Head of ESG Investment, Global Fixed Income at BlackRock.
The detailed policy forecasts in this work help the market conceptualize key changes that could occur in energy and land systems across the world if the forecasted climate policy acceleration occurs. Outlining what would be needed to end 1.5 C outcome, the report said in its Required Policy Scenario that the world would need to end deforestation, ideally by 2025; fully stop unabated coal burning by 2035 and phase out new fossil fuel-driven cars in almost all markets by 2040, while achieving 100% clean power globally by 2045.
The gap between the forecast and required scenarios meant companies, investors and governments that decided to reach net zero by 2050 must accelerate their efforts now more than ever, said Alex Bernhardt, Global Head of Sustainability Research at BNP Paribas Asset Management.