The US hopes that pressure from Russia, China and some Arab Gulf states may persuade Iran to moderate its negotiating stance on the steps that the Biden administration must take before both sides can return to the 2015 nuclear deal.
Talks in Vienna faltered badly last week after the new Iranian administration increased its levels of uranium enrichment and tabled proposals that US officials said were not serious since they walked back all the progress made in the previous round of talks.
At the weekend, US officials confirmed they would press ahead with an emergency board meeting of the UN nuclear inspectorate, the IAEA, before the end of the year if Iran doesn't restore access to its nuclear sites that satisfys the nuclear watchdog.
In Tehran, officials said that the two major texts on sanctions and Iran's nuclear obligations that it tabled at the Vienna talks were fully aligned with the nuclear deal, and that the real roadblock was the US refusal to lift sanctions.
US officials claimed that China and Russia had been taken aback by the degree to which Iran had walked back its compromises from previous rounds of talks, as well as doubling down on the demands that it made of the US and others.
The US senior US official said: "I think they do share a sense of disappointment, to put it diplomatically, at what Iran has chosen to do with the last few months of preparation for the talks. The direct talks between Iran, Russia, China, Germany, France and the EU resumed last week after a five-month delay to give the newly elected Iranian administration under Ebrahim Raisi time to review its demands. The Russians and Chinese government have been concerned with the fact that Iran has not adopted the posture of a country that is seriously thinking a return to mutual compliance with the deal, because of the new hardline Iranian regime which insists it can afford to walk away from the talks with the west, allowing it to fund its domestic welfare agenda by trading with the east, according to the official. The threat of an emergency IAEA board meeting in the next fortnight would be an early test to determine whether Iran is losing the protection of Russia or China.
The US official said Iran was beginning to isolate itself from its impatient natural allies and that the world, which for a long time during the maximum pressure campaign applied by Donald Trump from 2018, was more sympathetic to Tehran's position. We are seeing very clearly that countries around the world are aware that Iran is taking a position that is inconsistent with their stated goal of a return to the JCPOA, the 2015 nuclear deal and their accelerated nuclear programme are Exhibit A in that. The Iranian economy is afloat as it is estimated at half a million barrels per day and one of the lifelines that has kept it afloat, but the officials didn't say whether he thought Chinese concerns about Iranian nuclear proliferation would extend to ending the import of Iranian oil, which is estimated at half a million barrels a day.
He pointed out the way in which Gulf states had issued a statement in support of the restoration of the nuclear deal, a change in their previous posture. The most senior UAE national security official, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyanis, is due to visit Tehran on Monday.
The US is having to deal with Israeli demands that the US recognizes that Iran is involved in nuclear war. Israel's prime minister, Naftali Bennett, told his cabinet that he wanted the negotiations in Vienna to be postponed until Iran halts the uranium enrichment. Bennett told a cabinet meeting that Iran must pay a price for its violations. An Israeli military attack on Iran's nuclear sites would probably end any chances of effective Russian or Chinese pressure on Iran to change its negotiating tactics.
The US officials pointed out something akin to soul searching or interesting reflections in Israel by former officials about the decision to withdraw from the JCPOA. It has opened the door for an unconstrained, uncontrolled Iranian nuclear program, which was obviously not the case, while the US and Iran were both in compliance with the deal.