Watch out for Russia, Iraq

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Watch out for Russia, Iraq

Russia is making huge inroads into the Indian oil market and could become the largest supplier to the Asian giant, according to Bloomberg watch out Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

Moscow is on course to deliver somewhere between 1 million and 1.2 million barrels a day to the world's third largest oil importer this month, according to tanker tracking numbers compiled by Bloomberg and two oil analytics firms, despite the fact that many of its traditional European buyers are deprived of many of its traditional European buyers.

It would place it neck- and-neck with Iraq, and far ahead of Saudi Arabia. Baghdad is viewed with unease because Iraq s oil has had to discount to compete for market share in Asia because of the surge in flows.

Refiners in India have been robbing cheap Russian barrels in a way they never did before the invasion of Ukraine, making it noticeable even to Vladimir Putin, Russia s president.

Flows to Asia increased because European companies stopped buying, putting an onus on Russia to find alternative markets.

The vessel tracking figures vary from provider to provider, depending on assumptions and underlying information about cargoes. Figures from Kpler, Vortexa and Bloomberg show the dominant position Russia has assumed in India.

Kpler's data shows that Russian oil arrivals into India averaged 1.2 million barrels a day in June, a quarter of all crude flowing into the country. Iraq's daily supplies will be about 1.01 million barrels, while Saudi Arabia's daily supplies are on course for 662,000 a day.

Vortexa figures show Russian deliveries of 1.16 million barrels a day, more than Iraq's 1.131 million. According to Bloomberg's tanker tracking, 988,000 barrels will arrive from Russia this month, which is slightly less than the figure of 1.003 million barrels a day from Iraq.

According to Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior commodity analyst at Kpler, we think this new trade pattern between Russia and India should continue and could even intensify by the end of the year following the implementation of new European Union sanctions. The whole situation is leading to a reshuffle of flows, with more Middle Eastern crude going west toward Europe. India has defended Russian purchases, citing its national interest to source cheaper crude. Russia has a lot of cash from commodity markets that has been funding its war because of the buying of it.

Russia is muscling into Indian and Chinese markets and has been eating into the share of Iraq and Saudi Arabia in the world's biggest oil consuming region.

The two nations combined deliveries to India have fallen by about 500,000 barrels a day since April, as Russian flows ramped up, according to tracking data.

Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said last week that when the price goes up and you are left with no option, you will buy from anywhere. We have a very well defined understanding of what India's interests are. Is it possible for Google to drag It Into the Future?