Why the U.K. is so quiet

172
2
Why the U.K. is so quiet

It used to be an embarrassment for those who value their public credibility.

The badly performing team starts on a winning streak and the manager is fired. The share price goes up as the chief executive steps down.

The worst reaction for political leaders is, well, no reaction.

As beleaguered U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to bat away a barrage of insults and calls for his resignation during Wednesday s session in Parliament, the muted response from the City may hurt.

Gilts TMBMKGB 10 Y, and equities, moved in line with the global market narrative, and there was noticeable ennui in the currency market. There was no plunge in sterling GBPUSD on worries about political turmoil. There is no surge in sterling due to the belief that a new leader for the supposedly market friendly Conservative party could help their re-election at the next election.

Adam Cole, chief currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said that the days were gone when a U.K. chancellor and an open split with the prime minister were big news in foreign exchange.

Why is the relative calm? Most Parliament watchers believe that Johnson's days are definitely numbered after a slew of resignations - including Finance Minister Rishi Sunak - came in response to another spat about the PM's honesty.

If he does leave No 10 Downing Street - Penny Mourdant, the minister of trade, is the bookmaker's favorite to succeed him, there is unlikely to be a radical change in government policy. His party is called the Conservatives.

There is talk that finance minister Nadhim Zahawi may cancel plans to raise corporate taxes from 19% to 25%, and may also give a cut in consumption taxes to help households.

Analysts question their value because of the fact that such moves are not definite. While more fiscal easing in the U.K. was very much expected, this type of broad-based immediate easing would likely be seen as stimulating demand across the board and possibly sparking inflationary pressures, rather than a focus on anything specific to the cost-of-living crisis, said Orla Garvey, senior fixed income manager at Federated Hermes.

Fiscal twiddling is currently trumped by greater factors that are pushing the U.K. economy, such as higher energy costs, tighter monetary policy and a global slowdown.

The FTSE 250 MCX, a better gauge of the U.K. economy than the more globally-biased FTSE 100 UKX, was up 1.2% on Wednesday, but this reflected a rebound on Wall Street overnight. The barometer of medium-sized U.K. stocks remains above its lowest level since November 2020, and not much better off than where it was in 2015, the year before Johnson and others persuade the U.K. to leave the European Union.