According to analysts from Nomura, Lupin's growth trajectory is expected to be powered by the company's limited competition in its key respiratory drug gSpiriva, used for conditions such as asthma and COPD. Despite this positive outlook, the company may experience a slight sequential decline in revenue in the January-March quarter of FY24 due to seasonal weaknesses, although profits are expected to see a substantial year-on-year increase.
The pharma major is projected to witness a surge in profit after tax (PAT) by 110-142% year-on-year, with figures ranging from Rs 494 crore to Rs 570 crore in the upcoming period. However, analysts anticipate a 7-19% quarter-on-quarter decrease in PAT compared to the preceding quarter. Factors such as an increase in the field force by 20% in recent years are likely to contribute to Lupin's growth outperformance, particularly in the domestic market where a 9.5% year-on-year growth is anticipated in Q4FY24.
In the US market, Lupin is expected to face a $7 million decline in sales quarter on quarter due to additional competition in products like gSuprep. Nevertheless, the launch of new products with limited competition such as gProlensa, gBromsite, and diazepam gel are anticipated to counterbalance these challenges. Analysts predict that despite a seasonal slowdown, Lupin's EBITDA margin is likely to see improvement in the future, especially in FY25 and FY26 with new launches and cost control measures in place.
Kotak Institutional Equities projects that Lupin will report $213 million in US sales in Q4FY24, with a 4% quarter-on-quarter growth. They also expect a growth in gSpiriva sales and the benefit of gProlensa launch, although competition from other products might offset some of these gains. Moreover, Lupin's domestic sales are predicted to grow by 11% year-on-year, contributing to an overall estimated 16% year-on-year growth in sales, albeit with flat growth on a quarter-to-quarter basis. The brokerage also forecasts a 10 basis points EBITDA margin expansion to 20.1%.