Prime Minister Kishida Suffers Major Setback in By-Elections
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's leadership faced a significant challenge following the results of three Lower House by-elections held on April 28th. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a major setback, losing all three seats to the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP).
The most critical contest occurred in Shimane Prefecture's No. 1 district, traditionally an LDP stronghold. Despite Prime Minister Kishida's last-minute visit to campaign for the LDP candidate, the CDP emerged victorious. This loss in a key district signifies a potential shift in the political landscape and raises questions about Kishida's ability to maintain his grip on power.
The LDP's losses in the two other by-elections, Tokyo's No. 15 district and Nagasaki's No. 3 district, were attributed to the party's decision not to field candidates. These seats were previously held by LDP lawmakers, further highlighting the party's decline in popularity.
The by-election results have intensified internal pressure on Kishida, particularly in light of the ongoing political fund scandal that has embroiled the LDP. The Nagasaki by-election was triggered by the resignation of an LDP incumbent implicated in the scandal. Public criticism of the party's handling of the scandal and Kishida's disciplinary actions against involved figures has further destabilized the LDP.
The upcoming Diet session will see discussions on revising the Political Fund Control Law to prevent similar scandals in the future. However, the opposition parties are pushing for stricter revisions than those proposed by the LDP, potentially leading to a more confrontational approach.
Kishida's leadership is also being questioned within the LDP, with doubts about his ability to be the party's face in future elections. His plans to dissolve the Lower House and hold a general election before the LDP presidential poll in September have been met with caution due to the recent losses and declining public support.
With his LDP faction dissolved and growing unease among party members, Kishida's re-election as LDP president appears less certain. The upcoming Diet elections in 2025, when both Lower House and Upper House terms expire, will further test his leadership and the LDP's ability to regain public trust.